147
FXUS63 KMPX 061819
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
113 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather this week with the focus on tonight into
  Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night.

- Gusty winds today, especially in western Minnesota where a
  Wind Advisory is in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today and tomorrow... The high pressure responsible for the
great day yesterday will be off to our east over the Great
Lakes. Then to the west we will have the low for our next system
moving into the Northern Plains. With us in the center, this
will increase the pressure gradient and give us a classic signal
for gusty winds. This is only enhanced by the warm air
advection that we will get from the southerly winds today. This
advection will warm the lower atmosphere allowing for mixing,
further increasing confidence that today will be a windy day. As
mentioned in previous discussions, today will be the warmest
day of the week with temperatures in the lower 70s. Temperatures
won`t get much warmer than that thanks to cloud cover moving
west to east this morning through the afternoon as our next
round of rain moves in. As you would expect with our 100 PoPs,
rain is definite as all members in the LREF and HREF show a line
of showers passing through associated with the previously
mentioned system. Where there remains more spread through is in
QPF. The LREF remains higher with the previously mentioned quick
0.50-0.75" accumulations expected. HREF PMM show a more
widespread 0.25-0.50" accumulation with more localized totals of
0.5-1.0" accumulations. What is less certain is if the
precipitation rates will maintain as the line moves deeper into
Minnesota. This is where the difference is, as HREF PMM keeps
the higher totals more focused on southwestern Minnesota with a
notable decrease in rain rate as it progresses deeper into the
state. The risk for thunderstorms remains low as instability is
limited, largely thanks to the time of day it passes through.
However with high winds aloft we could still see some gusty
winds mix down in the showers. We will remain in the warm sector
on Tuesday and near the frontal boundary so additional activity
could occur. This is shown in the 06Z HRRR for example with
another line of thunderstorms feeding off of marginal
instability across eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin.
With limited shear it would be unlikely to see anything severe.

Wednesday through Sunday... The upper low will remain rooted
over the north central US until it finally starts to move out
Friday. This will give continued chances for unsettled weather.
Over the last few runs however ensembles have started to
converge on Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night as the next
best chance for activity. As the upper low continues to churn
over us an embedded short wave in its circulation could have
enough PVA associated with it to bring with it some rain.
Currently the best chances here look to be along the I-90
corridor. There are more chances for precipitation after this,
but there are very high spreads in the ensemble models so PoPs
have been kept low. Temperature wise, Wednesday will be similar
to Tuesday in the mid 60s to lower 70s before Thursday ends up
our coolest day of the week as we finally get to the cooler side
of this system. Temperatures still likely getting into the lower
60s though. Temperatures will likely hold near normal Friday
into the weekend. There is another round of synoptic forcing
late Friday into early Saturday, but not much QPF in ensemble
systems due to questionable moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR to start with continued breezy winds from now thru the rest
of the TAF period. Strongest winds will be this afternoon
through evening hours, with speeds near 20G30kts, then
diminishing to around 15G25kts overnight through Tuesday. Still
expecting a round showers with some embedded thunderstorms
overnight through Tuesday morning. Mainly MVFR conditions when
the swath moves across although some IFR visibilities are
possible should heavier rainfall move atop any given terminal.
Chances for CB/TS are best in western MN but cannot rule out the
possibility going eastward so have opted to "upgrade" the
phrasing from PROB30 to TEMPO. Improvement then expected late
morning into early afternoon to VFR conditions but still with
mid-level ceilings.

KMSP...VFR to start with MVFR ceilings and rainfall likely
around midnight or so tonight. A few thunderstorms within the
eastern edge of the swath of rain may be seen/heard at MSP, with
rain continuing through daybreak Tuesday morning. After VFR
conditions return midday Tuesday, additional SHRA/TSRA are
possible late Tuesday afternoon. Breezy SE winds (130-150
direction) likely through this evening, then backing a bit to
around 120 overnight through late Tuesday morning, then winds
become predominantly southernly the rest of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 15-20G25-30 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Chippewa-
     Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope-Redwood-
     Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC