Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 170546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1246 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.Update for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

A quiet remainder of today with widespread 80s and classic
summertime afternoon cu field. Clouds will dissipate this evening
with a mostly clear night with light winds expected.

For tomorrow, a frontal boundary will become nearly stationary
across northern MN and juxtaposed with elevated shortwave energy
later in the day. The best chance for precip certainly does look
to be off to our northwest in the vicinity of said front and
shortwave energy. However, a backdoor cold front looks to drop in
from the northeast which could lead to showers and possibly a
couple rumbles of thunder along the boundary in the afternoon as
it pushes into central MN and western WI. Have indicated mostly
slight chance or chance PoPs for this possibility. Showery
activity should dissipate tomorrow evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

The main concern in the long term is the system set to eject from
the Rockies at the end of the week. The main change from the
previous forecast was to slow the evolution of the frontal
boundary and hence decrease pops Saturday. The instability also
looks more limited but should be enough to generate some

With the potential slower evolution of the system, Sunday could
very well turn out to be the wetter of the two weekend days if
this trend continues. In fact, the GFS would indicate the precip
largely holds off across the forecast area until the arrival of
the upper low later Sunday, and mainly targeting the southern
third of Minnesota.

Looking ahead to next week, ridging will build in from the
southwest and there could be a few rounds of showers and storms
throughout the week. The temperature trends continue to look
warmer than normal for next week with the ridge building in.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR conditions throughout. Could see an afternoon shower or
thunderstorm at KAXN/KSTC/KMSP, so added VCSH to the TAF. Winds
will be southeast.

VFR conditions with a chance of an afternoon shower or
thunderstorm, so added VCSH to the TAF.

Fri...VFR. Wind SSE 10G20 kt.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/-TSRA possible late. Wind bcmg NNE at 10 kt.
Sun...VFR/MVFR with -RA possible. Wind NE at 10G20 kt.




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