Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 231115
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
615 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The forecast remains on track for today and tonight. Early morning
IR imagery and surface obs showed clear skies and high pressure
across the Great Lakes, with weak anticyclonic surface winds over
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Monday will be similar to Sunday, with
plenty of sun and weak winds. Thermal fields are a bit warmer, so
expect highs about 5 to 7 degrees warmer for most locations.

Split flow with a northern stream upper level wave to the north, and
a Pacific shortwave trough to the south will push a surface cold
front through Minnesota and Wisconsin, with a slight chance of rain
showers along this boundary early Tuesday morning, mainly over
southwest Minnesota. For others the only noticeable difference in
weather will be overcast skies, northerly winds, and cooler
temperatures on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

As alluded too earlier, Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with northerly
winds in the wake of a cold front that will push through the region.
There is a chance for a stray rain shower, but it still appears that
the lack of forcing across the Upper Midwest will keep most
locations dry. High pressure will quickly follow for Wednesday, so
expect another day of light winds with highs near 60.

A more potent storm system will move across the region from Canada
and bring more widespread precipitation for Thursday. Most locations
should see at least some rain, but amounts will be pretty light,
generally less than 0.25 inches since the system is fairly
progressive and does not have a rich supply of moisture. Another
supporting factor for limited precipitation is the lack of CAPE, so
don`t anticipate any localized heavier rainfall amounts from
convection. Temperatures on Thursday are tricky since there will be
warming ahead of the cold front.

Looking ahead, the GFS/GEM/EMCWF 23.00 are quick to bring ridging
and adiabatically warmed air back across the region for the weekend
and early next week. Did increase temperatures a bit above the
blended guidance, but if this pattern holds true highs on Monday
should easily reach the mid 70s and even touch 80 out west. For now
took a more conservative approach in case the pattern changes, but a
significant warm up is certainly plausible for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

High pressure centered east of the Great Lakes will continue to
slide east through the period with a weak trough of low pressure
working into our area toward the end of the period. With the
primary upper level forcing split to our north and south, we
should mainly only see an increase in mid/high clouds with this
feature, although the western and southwestern sites could see
a few sprinkles on Tuesday.

KMSP...Patch of mid clouds currently over the area should be gone
within the first hour or two of the forecast, with a steadier and
more significant increase in VFR cloud cover tonight into Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tuesday afternoon...Brief MVFR possible with a chance of
sprinkles. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.
Wednesday night...VFR. Southwest wind around 5 kt.
Thursday...MVFR possible with a chance of rain. Southwest wind 5
to 10 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt.
Thursday night...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 15 kt decreasing to 5 kt
or less.
Friday...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...



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