Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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060
FXUS63 KMPX 170330
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1030 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs showed a few low
clouds across Minnesota and Wisconsin with northerly winds and
temperatures in the 30s. Overnight surface high pressure will build
across the region and that will allow skies to clear and temperatures
to cool into the teens at most locations. Tuesday will be partly
cloudy but should see a few higher clouds move in from the west.
Afternoon highs will be in the low 40s across the north, with
upper 30s to the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

A potent short wave remains on track to bring a quick few hours of
heavy snow across northern Iowa into southern Minnesota and
southwest Wisconsin. The 16.12 NAM seems to diffuse with the forcing
and QPF, so trended more towards the GFS/ECMWF/GEM. A few locations
should pick up over an inch of QPF from this system, with much of it
falling as snow due to the intensity of the precipitation and colder
air wrapping in from the northeast into this system.

There are some timing differences, with the GFS being faster than
the GEM and moreso the ECMWF. For that reason did not make any
changes to the winter storm watch. Forecast soundings show peak
winds around 20 to 25 kts, so not anticipating significant blowing
snow.

Looking ahead, temepratures will moderate slowly. Overnight lows
will continue to drop below freezing each night the rest of the
week. If skies clear feel confident that the mid-April sun will
quickly eat away the snowpack and we should see highs in the 50s by
next weekend. The storm system for that time period continues to
track to the south so it shouldn`t impact the Upper Midwest. As for
the flooding concerns, the weather pattern remains fairly quiet
through next week with no significant storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Continued trend of 00z TAF of favoring the NAM for cloud trends
Tuesday, which is to maintain VFR conditions and not go with an
aggressive expansion of the low clouds as the GFS/LAMP have.
Again, it`s dry N-NW winds tonight combined with subsidence and an
overly moist boundary layer from the GFS that leads us away from
the LAMP for CIGS, though its wind forecast looks pretty good as
we work a ridge axis across MN Tuesday morning and western WI
Tuesday evening.

KMSP...LAMP cigs have been trending more optimistic with time, so
feel more confident in the NAM idea of low clouds remaining out of
MSP until Wednesday morning, when snow will be pushing back in.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...MVFR with IFR/SN possible 14Z-24Z. Wind NE 5-10 kts bcmg NW.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through late
     Wednesday night for MNZ082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG



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