509
FXUS63 KMQT 130008 CCA
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
808 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms into early evening, especially south
  central. There is a slight risk (15%) of large hail and/or
  damaging winds south central.
- Dry weather returns by Monday, continuing through Wednesday afternoon.
  Next chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 429 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a well-defined mid-level
low spinning over northern Ontario. Cold front associated with
feature has pushed into western Upper MI, aided by lake breeze
component. Ahead of front, shra/tsra have developed as expected.
Latest RAP analysis show MLCAPE of 100 to near 500j/kg across the w
half of Upper MI, maximized in eastern Gogebic County and eastern
Marquette County. Deep layer shear is running 30-35kt to support
storm organization. However, so far, nothing particularly strong has
developed. Deep mixing and lack of full green up for
evapotranspiration have worked to hold dwpts down today, and thus
instability has been held in check despite temps rising well into
the 70s and lwr 80s ahead of front and to the e of Lake MI marine
modified air across roughly the e half of Upper MI.

Over the next several hrs, the shra/tsra will continue to push e and
se thru central and eastern Upper MI. There is still the potential
of isold svr storms to develop across central Upper MI, s central in
particular, but that will depend on whether instability can increase
further over the next few hrs. Expect the shra/tsra to exit s
central/se fcst area by midnight. Wildfires are off and running
again in portions of s central and western Canada. First batch of
smoke of the year is following the cold front. Hazy skies will
develop after fropa, and based on webcams on Isle Royale, the smell
of smoke will be in the air as the evening progresses, at least
across the w half of Upper MI.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A couple beautiful weather days are forecast to start off the coming
work week. Behind tonight`s cold front, drier and cooler air will
filter into the region as high pressure at the surface and mid-level
ridging gradually build across the region. Before then though, a
weak mid-level shortwave moving through from the west and another
system moving eastward well south of us may support some cloud cover
late Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, ridge axis moving through on
Tuesday should support mostly clear skies. Under mostly northerly
flow, lakeshore areas both days should top out near 50F with low-mid
60s across central and southern portions of the forecast area.
Overnight lows both days look to be in the 30s for most of the area.
Best places for bottoming out in the 40s will be the southern
portions of Menominee County.

Upstream smoke observed on GOES 16 imagery and surface cameras in
Minnesota, is expected to filter into the region behind today`s cold
front. The HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke product does suggest
some of this may produce a hazy sky Monday.

An upstream shortwave will press closer to the region on Wednesday
while a surface low moves into western Minnesota, allowing for
increasing cloud cover from west to east. By Wednesday night, the
low looks to press into western Wisconsin, allowing weak theta-e and
moisture advection to eventually spread showers into the region. By
Thursday, increasing left exit jet dynamics may support more
widespread shower activity, but notable timing differences can be
seen among the deterministic suite, suggesting the showers may be
confined to the west half until Thursday night/Friday morning.
Another wave looks to press into the region Friday night/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Showers have cleared the terminals this evening with the passage
of the cold front. Other than some smoke from Canadian wildfires
which could lead to occasional MVFR vsbys tonight at CMX and
maybe IWD, expect VFR conditions through the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Warm sector draped across central Lake Superior this afternoon is
producing winds of 25-30 knots is some places. Some of this appears
to be a mix of outflow/downdrafts from lingering showers in the east
and a stronger low level jet overhead behind the warm front then
every model suggested. A cold front is currently stretched
southwestward across western Lake Superior. Ahead of this front,
some showers and some lightning have been observed mainly north of
the Keweenaw, but much of this isn`t likely reaching the surface. As
this front pushes east this afternoon/evening, winds should shift to
northwest post frontal, but a significant wind increase isn`t
expected unless there`s thunderstorms. Thunderstorm development
should be confined to the interior portions of Upper Michigan and
into Lake Michigan, but if something develops over Baraga/Marquette
County this afternoon, its possible this may stretch into Lake
Superior east of Marquette near the lakeshores. Stronger storms will
be capable of producing erratic winds and some hail. Behind the
front, high pressure will settle over the lake, supporting a few
days of mostly 20 kts or less over the lake through at least
midweek.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...None.
Lake Superior...None.
Lake Michigan...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JTP