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000
FXUS64 KMRX 232345
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
745 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. The higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains will see
gusts up to 30 or 35 mph late this afternoon through tomorrow
morning.

2. A weak cold front will bring increasing chances of rain
late tonight through Wednesday morning. Only light rain is
expected before becoming mostly dry for Wednesday afternoon.

Discussion:

Breezy southwesterly winds will subside around sunset. The higher
elevations of the East Tennessee mountains will see gusts up to 30
or 35 mph late this afternoon through tomorrow morning when the
front moves through.

In the upper levels, a trough is over the Eastern U.S. and a
ridge is over the Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front will
move through the region tomorrow morning. Rain chances increase
late tonight through the morning hours as the front approaches.
The front is decaying as it moves through the region, so the best
rain chances are north of I-40. Rain will be light and QPF is low,
under a quarter of an inch. Light rain and clouds will move out of
the region in the late morning/early afternoon hours. With
afternoon sunshine, highs will get into the lower 70s for most of
the Tennessee Valley tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. Mostly dry and warm conditions forecasted into the weekend.

2. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

Discussion:

Generally quiet weather can be expected for several days as we sit
under upper level and surface level ridging into the weekend. This
will keep most of the synoptic level forcing and associated
precipitation well off to our west, and mainly dry and sunny
conditions for most of the forecast.

Friday could see a quick round of showers as a strengthening low
level jet moves into the region helping to create an area of
isentropic lift as a weak boundary moves through the region. This
feature is expected to be pretty weak and models are struggling to
resolve how much coverage of showers we can expect. However most
models are in good agreement that whatever occurs would be generally
light to moderate showers during the daytime on Friday. Will
continue with the lower end precipitation chances for the end of the
work week.

Ridging restrengthens over the weekend leading to fairly mild
temperatures. The synoptic pattern looks like it will finally
undergo a change early next week as a front moves through the
OHio/Tennessee Valleys driven by a low lifting out through the
northern plains and Great Lakes region. This system looks to bring
along with it a more unstable atmosphere and we should see the
return of thunderstorms to the region Monday and/or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Overnight, VFR conditions will continue with the main impact being
LLWS at CHA and TRI. Low-level winds will still be strong over
TYS, but winds at the surface will remain stronger than at the
other sites. By the early morning hours, rain is expected to
arrive from the north, especially at TRI and TYS. Reductions to
MVFR are possible but were left out of the TAFs. Rain is also
possible at CHA but was left out of the TAF as well due to
lessened coverage. Conditions will improve by the afternoon with a
more northerly shift in winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             53  76  50  78 /  10  10   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  72  47  75 /  20  20   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  74  47  76 /  30  30   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              49  68  42  71 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...BW