Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
000
FXUS64 KOHX 281658
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1158 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Surface high pressure is starting to slide over Middle TN from the
west. This will bring us a stretch of quiet weather into the
weekend. Mostly sunny today with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s. With high pressure overhead tonight we will see clear skies
and overall light winds, this will bring good radiational cooling
and we should see lows fall into the mid to upper 30s east of I-65
with lower 40s west. The NBM gives areas east of I-65 a 40-60%
chance of lows 36 or cooler tonight which is a good threshold for
frost. With temperatures near or just above that mark frost is
looking to remain patchy. We will be looking at great weather on
Friday as high pressure slowly slides east. This will bring
southerly flow and the start of a warm up, highs will make it into
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Upper level ridge will be in place for the weekend with surface
high pressure sliding to the southeast. This will continue our
warming trend with highs pushing well into the 70s Saturday and to
near 80 Sunday. Our dew points will also continue to rise pushing
into the 50s Saturday and near 60 Sunday. A trough will track out
of the Great Lakes into the Northeast Sunday pushing a weak
frontal boundary into our far northeast, this may bring a few
light showers but the chances look low.
The weather will become more active Monday and Tuesday as a trough
pushes out of the West into the Great Lakes bringing thunderstorm
chances. A warm front will push north through Middle TN Monday
with dew points pushing into the 60s. A cold front will then move
in Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles are still
struggling with the timing of this front with it coming through as
early as Monday night and as late as Tuesday evening. The timing
of the front will impact how much instability we see and our
severe weather chances. Overall there is good consensus on a
decent amount of CAPE ahead of the front with good shear. SPC has
us highlighted in the Day 6 (Tuesday) outlook which seems
reasonable but it`s too early and there is too much variability in
the models for details.
Much cooler air builds in Wednesday and we will remain in a
troughing pattern keeping slight shower chances in the forecast
for eastern areas. Ridging and warming temperatures build in as
the week goes on.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions continue at all sites. Calm winds slightly increase
to around 5 to 10 knots out of the northeast this morning, then
gradually turn out of the west and southwest through this evening.
CSV and SRB could see some gusts to around 15 knots during the
daylight hours. Skies should remain clear throughout the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 63 41 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 62 41 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
Crossville 57 36 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 63 38 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 58 38 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
Jamestown 56 37 65 48 / 0 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 62 39 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 63 37 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 63 40 70 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Whitehead