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000
FXUS64 KOHX 240529
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Lovely night out there with temps still in the 60s and a southwest
breeze near 10mph as of update time. The 00Z balloon launch shows
a very dry atmosphere, pretty much all the way up through our
slice of the troposphere. Still, CAMs show the mid-levels
moistening up over the next several hours as a cold front
approaches, bringing light showers mainly to areas north of I-40.
No instability noted on the sounding tonight and still not seeing
any on the latest CAMs, so thunder potential is next to 0. Clouds
will clear by tomorrow afternoon, leaving us with another
beautiful and warm spring day with highs in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A warmer day is in place across the mid state. Under moderate
southwesterly breezes the temperatures are mostly in the 60s this
late morning. The surface map features a frontal boundary located
well to our northwest, with the boundary stretching from WI through
KN. This cold front will be a weak player in tonight`s weather. It
is expected to push through the area early Wednesday morning.
Showalter values should remain positive with little in the way of
cape overnight. Thus, just expecting some shower activity but pops
and qpf will be on the low side.

Surface high to our north will be in control on Wednesday into
Thursday with a light northerly and northeasterly flow. The next
chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will occur on Thursday
night. At that time, a warm front will be lifting northward through
our area.

For the near term temps, values will run close to normal through the
period. Humidity levels will start to tick upward with that Thursday
night warm fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

In the extended forecast, Morning showers and a thunderstorm or two
will still be around for Friday morning. Following this, height
rises will prevail with the primary boundaries remaining well to the
west across the Plains states. Note however, that the weekend looks
somewhat breezy as the southerly flow increases with pressure
gradients expected to tighten. This will lead us into the next
frontal system interaction which looks like Monday. Surface low will
take a far northerly track and weaken as it moves into Canada.
Trailing cold front looks weak with mid level jet well north.
Instability levels look considerable but shear and organization are
rather weak. Maybe a marginal risk by then, a lot could change.

For the extended temperatures, its looking warm and you`ll notice
the increase in humidity. So much so that our lows should hold in
the lower to mid 60s through the period. Highs generally in the
lower 80s, a little cooler on Monday afternoon with the added clouds
and showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Light rain is working its way through the region, but conditions
should remain VFR overnight. KSRB/KCSV look to see MVFR cigs by
around 12Z and last through the late morning. Otherwise expecting
VFR cigs to continue. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots
overnight will become northwest around 10 knots through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  46  76  57 /   0   0  10  30
Clarksville    73  44  72  55 /   0   0  20  40
Crossville     69  42  72  52 /  20   0   0  20
Columbia       76  46  76  57 /   0   0  20  30
Cookeville     70  44  72  55 /  10   0  10  20
Jamestown      70  41  72  50 /  20   0   0  20
Lawrenceburg   75  48  74  57 /   0   0  20  30
Murfreesboro   75  45  77  56 /  10   0  10  30
Waverly        76  49  74  57 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Barnwell