336
FXUS66 KOTX 092138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend.
Temperatures on Friday through the weekend will warm to the
highest values of the season so far, with high temperatures
reaching the 80s, with a few areas rising into the lower 90s.
The weather pattern for early next week is uncertain, however a
cooling trend is likely with increasing clouds, and a small
chance of precipitation for the Cascade Crest, extreme northeast
Washington, and the northern half of the Idaho Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday: Ridge of high pressure will build over the
region with mostly clear skies and light winds through Saturday.
Temperatures will warm with Saturday being the warmest day across
central WA, and eastern WA and north ID having similar temps for
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees
above average, topping out in the upper 70s to around 90. Sunday
the ridge will begin to flatten as a wave approaches the area.
Winds will increase during the afternoon from the west or
southwest. Current forecast has gusts 15 to 25 mph for most
locations, but an area from south of Omak down across the
Waterville Plateau has a 50-70% chance of gusts to 30 mph. Gusts
to 30 mph is also shown across the higher terrain of the Cascades
as well as down towards George, Vantage and the Kittitas Valley.

*Impacts: People not yet acclimated to these warm temperatures
 could experience heat related issues if outside this weekend.
 Also, river and lake temperatures remain cold...in the 40s to low
 50s. Hypothermia and loss of muscle control can set in quickly
 when swimming in cold waters. Rivers are also running swiftly.

Monday through Thursday: The ridge flattens Monday. Some of the
ensembles show a wave moving through, but wouldn`t do much more
than bring an increase in mid and high clouds as well as keep
conditions breezy. Temperatures will lower about 6 to 10 degrees.
As we head toward Tuesday through Thursday there is a lot of
discrepancy as to if the ridge will build back up, or if a trough
will bring some light precip to portions of the area. The 100
member ensemble forecast is split right down the middle 50/50 by
Thursday. If we are troughy, temps will be in the mid 60s to mid
70s, if we are under the ridge temps will be in the mid 70s to mid
80s. Currently have a 20% chance of light showers for the Cascade
crest, along the Canadian border and for portions of the ID
Panhandle. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period as high pressure builds over the region. Winds will be
light through most of the period. Southwest winds will increase
Saturday afternoon to around 10kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is very high confidence for VFR conditions across all TAF
sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  78  49  81  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  46  77  49  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        46  75  49  78  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       50  82  54  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       43  81  47  83  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      45  75  48  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        48  75  52  76  54  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     48  85  51  89  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      55  83  57  88  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  85  53  89  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$