176
FXUS64 KOUN 050759
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
259 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across central and
eastern Oklahoma this morning/early afternoon. As this occurs,
most of the heavy rainfall and storms will end west of Interstate
35 during the early morning. Rainfall rates with the heavier
storms through the morning are expected to average around 1 to
1.5 inches, which will result in minor flooding and/or ponding of
water on roads. With the rain moving east this morning, western
parts of a Flood Watch will be cancelled by 12Z (perhaps I-35 and
west).

Despite the thunderstorm complex over Oklahoma and a larger one
across central and eastern Texas, rich Gulf moisture will remain
close to our south. Heating this afternoon should result in weak
instability, but rather weak boundary layer flow will limit shower
or thunderstorm development. The exception may be central and south
central Oklahoma where a deeper moisture profile is expected.
Brief shortwave ridging will spread across the southern Plains this
evening and overnight, in advance of a strong trough moving through
the inter-Mountain West.



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Models are in general agreement with lifting a strong trough across
western parts of the central and northern Plains on Monday. Although
the trough will lift well to our north, decent height falls, and
the exit region of a strong upper jet will overspread roughly the
northern half of Oklahoma Monday afternoon/evening.

Unsure how many storms will develop along a dryline, but it seems
apparent that some will.  Instability, 3000+ J/kg, and NAM
hodographs support the risk of tornadoes, some of which may be
strong. Very large hail and damaging winds will also be possible.
Supercells that can develop are expected to move northeast around 35
to 40 mph, and will likely persist well into the evening hours.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front
that is expected to move into northern and western Oklahoma late
Monday. A capping inversion and drier air across parts of western
Oklahoma and western northern Texas, may limit development on the
front.

Northwest to west winds will advect drier air into the southern
Plains overnight Monday into Tuesday. This is expected to result
in dry weather Tuesday. A stronger cold front is expected to move
across Oklahoma and western north Texas on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front in
south central and southeastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon.
Rather high instability and decent shear will support the risk of
large hail and damaging winds.

After the front on Wednesday, mainly dry weather is expected across
most of Oklahoma and western north Texas through at least Friday.
The exception may be far southeast Oklahoma Thursday.  Another
system may move close enough to the southern Plains to increase rain
chances late Saturday into Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR cigs expected for much of forecast, at least through 18Z most
terminals. Area of SHRA/TSRA will spread from west to east across
the region first 6 to 9 hours of forecast. IFR conditions still
appear likely post rain with slowly lifting cigs through the day
tomorrow with moist east and southeast flow developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  60  79  60 /  80  10  50  30
Hobart OK         74  60  83  53 /  30  10  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  63  83  60 /  40   0  30  10
Gage OK           73  57  86  51 /  30  10  30   0
Ponca City OK     69  60  79  57 /  80  10  70  60
Durant OK         74  63  81  69 /  70  10  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...11