Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
000
FXUS63 KPAH 260126
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
826 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds continue through tonight. Gusts of 40-50 mph
  possible with a few locally higher gusts possible.

- Showers and storms spread across the area later this afternoon
  and tonight.

- Cooler than average temps Tuesday night through Wednesday
  night then a warming trend Thursday onward.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The HiRes Planview data was way overdone for this evening. Model
soundings were much better showing the unfolding scenario, which
was a saturation of the low levels fairly quickly coupled with
the presence of an inversion in time. Currently, no sites are
gusting to Wind Advisory criteria of 40 mph. The forecast
soundings show that will remain the case through the overnight.
Will eliminate the Wind Advisory from west to east with the
passage of the narrow band of heavy showers moving through the
region. Most of SEMO has been cleared already. Should be out of
the woods across the KY Pennyrile region by Midnight CDT or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A large upper level system is moving through the Central Plains and
the Midwest today and tomorrow. The sfc low is moving through KS and
into IA with a cold front draping south. Ahead of this system
we are seeing strong, gusty winds with gusts of 40-50 mph
possible through tonight. Showers and storms are expected to
spread from west to east across the area later this afternoon
through tonight. Rainfall totals are expected to range from
around a half inch in the Evansville Tri-State area to 1-1.5
inches further west, in SEMO. The cold front is expected to pass
through the area west to east tonight into tomorrow.

Tomorrow winds are expected to still be breezy though not nearly as
strong as today with gusts of 20-30 mph. During the morning, showers
and storms will linger generally over the Evansville Tri-State. A
few of these storms could be strong to severe given 100-200 J/kg of
MUCAPE (the HRRR supports around 300 J/kg of SBCAPE) and rather
strong 0-6 km shear nearing an impressive 100 kts. The main threats
would be damaging winds and hail. SPC has a marginal risk for
tomorrow and the main concerns would be mostly during the morning to
maybe the early afternoon depending on when the front comes through.

Wednesday sfc high pressure builds in from the west as we remain in
southwest flow aloft due to broad troughing over the central CONUS.
Below normal temps are expected tomorrow night through Wednesday
night with several spots seeing lows around freezing. A warming
trend is in store for Thursday onward though. Broad ridging aloft
will move over the central CONUS by Friday. Highs return to the 70s
Friday onward with highs in the upper 70s to possible low 80s on
Monday. A mid level shortwave along with a sfc warm front just to
our north could bring a few showers to the area Friday night and
Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Will continue with the chance of showers and strong SE winds through
the evening hours as a front moves into the area. Will maintain
our LLWS as low level winds increase this evening especially over
west KY into southwest IN and the southern tip of IL. From west
to east after 06z, winds will become more SSW, decrease for a short
time, then pick up from the SW 15 to 25 KTS for Tuesday. Occasional
MVFR to IFR conditions are anticipated this evening, persisting
through 06-09Z. Conditions should return to VFR Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ111-112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT /6 AM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CN
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...CN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.