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000
FXUS65 KPUB 152348
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
548 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions continue into this evening,
  with high fire danger returning Tuesday for areas along and
  to the east of the I-25 corridor.

- Strong to damaging winds gusting to 65 mph are likely across the
  eastern plains on Tuesday.

- Accumulating snow expected across the central mountains
  tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Critical fire weather conditions persist across the San Luis Valley
  and western portions of the CWA through the end of the week.

- Cooler and unsettled weather across eastern Colorado for end of the
  work week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Strong upper level system continues to pivot east across the region
this afternoon, with strong southwesterly flow in place across
Colorado. This has supported some increase in showery development
across parts of the Continental Divide this afternoon, though
coverage and intensity of any shower remains low at this time.
Overall coverage and intensity should remain similar for the
remainder of the afternoon, however, will see increases in both
later this evening into the overnight hours as this system passes
overhead and winds become situated more out of the west northwest.
During this time, will see RH values in single digits continue over
much of southern Colorado and while winds gust up to 50 to 55 mph.
As previously noted, there is a quick surge of flow appearing likely
late this afternoon into the evening that I think will provide some
slight uptick in winds. While widespread winds gusting to 60 mph are
not really expected this evening, would not be surprised to see an
isolated wind gust to 60 mph.

By later tonight into into early Tuesday morning, this upper low
will continue to shift east across Colorado. Strengthening flow on
the back side of it will assist with continued snow across the
central mountains. Did make some slight adjustments to snow totals
and given the high likelihood of accumulating snow with
strengthening winds, do think there will be some impacts felt across
the lower elevations of Lake county. So, did go ahead and add them
to the Winter Weather Advisory. Turn focus to the Pikes Peak region
and Palmer Divide early Tuesday morning, where large scale ascent
and focus are likely to increase. Guidance in better agreement with
this setup and precip development, with snow appearing likely across
the higher elevations of Teller County and rain elsewhere across El
Paso county. Do think there will be periods of snow mixing in at
times over portions of northern El Paso county, but think any snow
accums and impacts will be low.

Any remaining precip will wind down by late morning and midday, with
focus then turning to the strengthening winds and returning high
fire danger. Low/Mid level flow really ramps up Tuesday morning,
with strengthening northerly winds spreading across the plains
during this time. A few quick higher gusts are possible early
Tuesday morning over the southern I-25 corridor, and can`t
completely rule out an isolated wind gust to around 60 mph. Don`t
think the more widespread and longer lasting wind gusts up to 60 to
65 mph won`t occur until mid to late morning, focusing more across
the eastern plains. With increasing confidence, did go ahead and
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning and also included
Bent county in this warning. Lastly, have upgraded and expanded the
Red Flag Warning to now include much of the I-25 corridor and areas
to the east. Despite some slight cooling tomorrow, critical RH
values are appearing likely. Given the strength of the winds on
Tuesday, did go ahead and include areas where RH values will only
fall to the 15 to 20 percent range. Areas closer to the CO and KS
border where winds will be gusting to 65 mph, RH values look to be
well above 20 percent. Do think this is an area to keep an eye, as
it is quite possible that RH values are lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tuesday night-Wednesday night...Moderating northwesterly flow aloft
across the Rockies Tuesday night becomes more westerly through the day
on Wednesday, with more short wave energy translating through the
stronger westerly flow in place across the Northern Tier. Pattern suggests
developing lee trough across the plains and good mixing on Wednesday to
help bring back breezy westerly winds of 15-30 mph and critical fire
weather conditions to the high mountain valleys into portions of the
I-25 Corridor, especially gap prone areas of mid Arkansas River Valley
and southern I-25 Corridor Wednesday afternoon. However, with multiple
hazardous warnings currently in place, will wait to issue any additional
Fire Weather highlights at this time.  The downslope flow will again help
boost temperatures back to above seasonal levels in the 70s to mid 80s
across the plains, and mainly in the 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Latest models continue to indicate a passing shortwave across
the Northern Rockies sends a cold front across the eastern Plains late
Wednesday night, with developing moist easterly upslope flow developing
stratus and a few possible sprinkles early Thursday morning, mainly
across the I-25 Corridor.

Thursday-Saturday...Models remain consistent with moderate westerly
flow persisting across the region through the weekend, with occasional
shortwaves translating through the stronger westerly flow in place
across the Northern Tier. These shortwaves remain progged to send front
across eastern Colorado through the weekend, leading to cool, cloudy and
and unsettled weather for eastern Colorado, with daily chances of showers
in place. Further west, warm and breezy conditions west of the Front Range,
will lead to continued critical fire weather conditions for portions of
the high mountain valleys, especially the San Luis Valley into the weekend.

Sunday-Monday...Weak upper level ridging progged to build across the Rockies
into early next week, leading for a return of at and above seasonal
temperatures and continued daily chances of showers, especially over and
near the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be
synoptically influenced and very strong and gusty out of the SW-WSW
at all terminals this evening, then throughout the night these winds
will veer around to a NW-NNW`ly direction. They will weaken at KALS
as they do tomorrow morning, although will continue to be very
strong and gusty, with gusts around or greater than 40 kts possible
at both KCOS and KPUB throughout the rest of the forecast period.
There is also very low confidence (less than 10%) of any showers
moving over on station at KCOS or KPUB, and it will likely occur
this evening through early tomorrow morning if it does. However,
precip should be light enough that it will likely not restrict
VIS to IFR criteria.  -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-224.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Tuesday for COZ058>060.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
225>237.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ227>230-
232-233.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ095>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD