Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 281851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
251 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails today. Mid level disturbance brings rain
across the north, switching to upslope snow across the northeast
mountains tonight into Friday morning. Dry but windy Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 241 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * Wind advisory in effect for NW Randolph and SE Pocahontas
   tonight through Friday evening.

 * Enhance Fire danger possible once again Friday afternoon and
   evening.

Axis of deep upper-level trough, extending from the Great Lakes
south into the southeastern US, shifts east off the east coast this
evening. Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave will cross the northern
sections of the area tonight. This shortwave will bring enhanced
lake moisture in the form of light rain or sprinkles across the
northern lowlands, transitioning into light snow across the northern
and central WV mountains tonight into Friday morning. Up to one inch
of snow can be expected across the higher elevations.

Models show H850 WNW winds increasing 45 to 50 knots. Expecting a
portion of these winds to reflect to the ground under neutral
temperature advection. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been redacted
for SE Randolph and NW Pocahontas overnight tonight through 8 PM
Friday evening.

Near normal temperatures expected tonight, generally in the
upper 30s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 30s higher
elevations of our northeast mountains.Slightly higher than
normal highs expected for Friday, generally in the mid to upper
60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s higher
elevations.

With increasing gusty winds on Friday, RH values should mix down
into the mid to upper 30s for the most part, except even higher
depending on precipitation expected tonight. However, under
breezy conditions, fuels can quickly dry up posing a threat of
spreading fires. A special weather statement may be needed for
enhance fire danger on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 217 PM Thursday...

Key Point:

* Swath of moderate rain along a stalling frontal boundary may yield
  isolated high water issues by Sunday

At the outset of the short term period surface high pressure will
reside over the Deep South/Eastern Gulf of Mexico with a relatively
weak area of low pressure emerging from the Northern Rockies. A warm
front associated with the latter feature will slowly drift north
overnight Friday, exiting the forecast area to the north during the
day on Saturday. Some light precipitation will be possible along and
ahead of this feature late Friday night into Saturday. Forecast
profiles are a little on the iffy side for weak elevated convection
in the warm sector during the day Saturday with some question as to
reaching saturation at the base of the elevated mixed layer and
allowing for conditional instability release. Given the spread in
solutions will defer to central guidance chance/likely PoPs,
although these could decrease some over the next couple days as
solutions converge. The weak surface low then washes out Saturday
night leaving the remnants of its cold frontal boundary as a
stationary front draped west to east across the region with some
additional chances for light rain, but more importantly setting up a
baroclinic battle zone to be worked across by a pair of systems
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 217 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

* Stalled frontal boundary brings increasing high water concerns
  Monday into Tuesday

* Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon

* Light mountain snow possible Wednesday night into Thursday

As mentioned in the short term discussion, a stalled frontal
boundary will bisect the region from west to east at the outset of
the long term period. Troughing diving down the Pacific Coast,
making a left turn at Albuquerque with lee cyclogenesis in the lee
of the Southern/Central Rockies. Deep southwesterly flow in advance
of this feature will open the taps of Gulf Moisture with a stream of
1.25 to 1.5 inch precipitable water values stretching from South
Texas to the Middle Ohio Valley by Monday morning. Broad ascent
aloft from both the right rear and left front quadrants of the
northern/southern stream will work over this plume of enhanced
moisture much of the day Monday yielding between one half and one
inch of rain across much of the area. This initial rainfall could
cause some of the more sensitive waterways to rise above bankfull,
but more importantly will precondition soils to be more sensitive to
subsequent precipitation Tuesday.

Model solutions still display a decent spread regarding eventual
evolution of the aforementioned lee cyclogenesis Tuesday into
Tuesday night but clustering solutions would suggest a warm front
lifting toward during the day coupled with a shared energy area
between the northern and southern stream providing forcing for
ascent along the front and in the open warm sector during the day.
Mid-level lapse rates in the warm sector aren`t currently progged to
be overly impressive, generally 6.5C/km or so, but the
aforementioned abundance of moisture should still yield a decent
amount of conditional instability in the presence of a reasonably
strong kinematics. Contingent on timing, this could yield some
chance for all severe modes Tuesday afternoon. As previously alluded
to, antecedent wet conditions could also yield some high water
issues with any swaths of heavier rainfall (likely along the warm
front). Cold frontal passage is then expected Tuesday night ushering
higher column moisture values out to the east through Wednesday
morning.

Additional chances for precipitation arrive Wednesday afternoon as
northern stream energy crosses the Upper Great Lakes. Across the
lower elevations could see rain transitioning to some light non-
accumulating snow Wednesday night. In the mountains, some light snow
accumulations would be possible Wednesday night, mainly on grassy
surfaces given antecedent warm ground conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 203 PM Thursday...

Widespread VFR conditions to prevail for most sites through the
period. The exception will be CKB, EKN, and BKW where light
rain/snow showers will be possible during the overnight hours.
However, expect brief periods of MVFR over these sites with
possible IFR under snow showers. Conditions will return to VFR
Friday morning.

Northwest surface flow will become gusty tonight especially
across the higher elevations. This will again preclude any
nocturnal fog development. Light to gentle winds aloft this
afternoon and evening become moderate to strong tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain/snow reaching the northeast
terminals may vary from forecast. Winds will vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Building high pressure will bring a mainly dry finish to the work
week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity values
lower into the 25-30 percent range across the lowlands and 25 to
45 percent range across the mountains this afternoon, but under
a generally light breeze as fuels continue to dry.

Friday afternoon will be on the breezy side amid relative
humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance for showers
returns this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ

FIRE WEATHER...


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