000
FXUS61 KRNK 191040
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
640 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across our area today, exiting to
the coast tonight. Temperatures will return to a more seasonal
levels this weekend. A front over the southeast could keep
chance of showers across southern Virginia into North Carolina
Sunday, before high pressure nudges in Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 636 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Low clouds in the Piedmont this morning

2) Showers/scattered storms today. Marginal risk of severe storms
especially along/south of the VA/NC border this afternoon.

Nudged Pops up in the far west later this morning to match
better with latest trends but still looks like activity will
scatter out with the crossing of the mountains.

Prev discussion...

Radar showing area of showers/embedded storms across the middle and
lower Ohio Valley this morning with a few showers across southern TN.

At the same time, satellite/low cloud/fog product showing a deck of
stratus heading westward across the Piedmont as far west as I-85.
Latest guidance has this stratus making it as far west as the
foothills of VA into the NC piedmont by dawn to mid morning. This
could hold temperatures down through midday/early afternoon, so
lowered highs to the lower 70s along/north of Roanoke to Gretna to
Farmville, with upper 70s along/south of U.S 58 then up across
Charlotte County. This will make for a limitation in convection
potential. SPC has the marginal risk of severe still mainly
along/south of Beckley WV to Lynchburg Va line. Looking at severe wx
parameters and high-res convective allowing models, appears better
chance for stronger storms if any would be along/south of the VA/NC
border this afternoon.

Leaning toward less coverage of showers this morning, and more
toward what the HRRR and 3km NAM depicts blended with ARW, which has
weakening convection arriving in our WV and far SW VA mountains
between 8-10am, then staying mainly scattered as it moves east over
the Blue Ridge.

The cold front will be entering the Appalachians by midday with best
dynamics lifting north into Ontario and NY, and front start to look
weaker and more diffuse this afternoon.

Will keep pops in the 30-50 percent chance range this afternoon,
with likely pops this morning along WV into far SW VA.

Sunshine appears limited today, though westerly flow aloft may send
some drier air into the lee of the mountains, allowing for a little
sunshine after the stratus scours out.

Not a high confidence forecast as models are varying on coverage of
storms.

During the evening, diffuse front heads toward the coast with
showers/any storms weakening/ending before midnight. Skies likely
staying fairly cloudy most of the night with some clearing toward
dawn. Variations exist in the models to cloud cover late tonight so
another low confidence forecast. More cloud cover will keep lows
elevated and went close to MOS with mid to upper 40s west to mid 50s
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:
1. Near normal temperatures, cooler on Sunday.
2. Precipitation chances increase Sunday south of VA border.
3. Dry weather on Monday.

By the start of the weekend, the cold front that will have crossed
the area Friday will be situated along the Atlantic Coast, and
extending into the southeastern US. The front will stall along the
Gulf Coast states, leading to rain for most of the weekend for that
area. The upper low associated with this front will track
northeastward through Saturday, pulling the cold front away from the
coast. As the front shifts farther east, low pressure
strengthens some and the precipitation may reach as far north
as the VA/NC border by Sunday. However, with a surface high
pushing into the area from the west, the highest probabilities
for precipitation stay farther south. The surface high will
expand eastward, and become centered over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys by Monday, keeping the central Appalachians dry for the
start of the work week.

The 500mb flow will become more zonal through the weekend, but
turning more northwesterly over the area by the beginning of the
week, as the upper trough lifts farther away. This, and the surface
high, will lead to a few days of cooler temperatures, although they
will be closer to seasonal normals. Sunday looks to be the coolest
day of this forecast period, as the colder air fills in behind the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:
1. Increasing temperatures Tuesday.
2. Another chance for rain on Wednesday, highest chances in the
mountains.
3. Dry weather returns for Thursday.

The surface high pressure that will have kept the area dry through
Monday will shift southeast, but still keeping the area mostly dry
through Tuesday. A surface low pressure system will track across the
northern tier of the US through the beginning of the work week,
while its cold front reaches from the upper Midwest into the central
Plains by Tuesday. This will advance towards the east, crossing the
Appalachians by Wednesday. This will be the next chance for
precipitation for the area, with the highest chances in the
mountains late Tuesday into Wednesday. The 500mb trough associated
with this surface front will stay well to the north of the area,
along with the better upper dynamics, which will limit the coverage
of precipitation over the area.

Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will bump temperatures up
to above normal on Tuesday. After the frontal passage Wednesday,
high pressure pushes southward back into the area, which will bring
dry conditions back, but also drop temperatures below normal for the
second half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 639 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1). MVFR, possible IFR east of the Blue Ridge through 14z.

2). Decaying area of precipitation with MVFR ceilings spread
into the western parts of the CWA after 12Z.

3). Scattered showers/thunderstorms potentially redevelop along
frontal boundary mid-late Friday afternoon, but low confidence
on coverage east of WV.

High clouds working in from convective blowoff over the Ohio
Valley. Low clouds on easterly flow advancing westward toward
LYH/DAN and will likely see some MVFR, possible IFR at LYH/DAN
in the 12-16z time frame, and even ROA may be getting this.

Area of convection over KY appears to weaken as it moves toward
our mountains this morning, so am keeping showers out except
BLF, as thinking coverage may not be as great east of here. Will
mainly have VCSH in the west this morning except BLF where MVFR
cigs/vsbys are likely in the 11-17z time frame.

By late morning into the afternoon, storms will be scattered
around so have VCTS everywhere except LYH/DAN where think
coverage is more widely scattered later in the day.

Looking at mainly dry after 00z with VFR returning for most,
except holding on to lower MVFR cigs at BLF, possibly LWB.

Appears skies clear out late in the west and parts of the east
though confidence is low.

Winds today will be turning more south to southwest ahead of the
front, then west-northwest behind it Friday evening.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

The aforementioned cold front will exit to the south and east
of the CWA by Saturday. Some MVFR ceilings may linger across the
mountains Saturday morning. North winds will provide some
clearing for late Saturday, but more moisture may surge
northeastward during Sunday and Monday to bring another chance
of rain as low pressure rides across the southeastern states.
Confidence in the later scenario is quite low at this time.

Another front approaches by middle of next week though shower
chances and sub-VFR are not expected to be that great.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...RAB/WP