Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281036
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
536 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will bring temperatures well above normal for
  Friday through Monday.

- Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts over 40
  mph possible northwest of I-44.

- An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong
  to possibly severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Mid-level height rises and modest warm air advection will allow
temperatures to climb into the mid 60s today across the area
along with clear skies.

The main story today will be locally elevated fire conditions.
Dew points were lowered slightly from the NBM given its tendency
to be too quick to bring moisture back into region on the first
day of southerly flow. Additionally, forecast soundings
indicate the potential for mixing down drier air aloft. Forecast
minimum relative humidity this afternoon ranges from near 25%
across the eastern Ozarks to 40% across southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas. Winds will be modest today, however, and
strongest (15-20 mph) north of I-44 closer to a tighter surface
pressure gradient.

Continued warm air advection will negate any frost or freeze
risk tonight, with lows only dipping into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Friday will be marked by windy conditions. A strengthening low
on the lee side of the Rockies will increase the surface
pressure gradient across the region. Concurrently, guidance
depicts a strong 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet nudging into
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri Friday afternoon. This
tight pressure gradient and a well mixed thermodynamic profile
will allow for wind gusts of 35-45 mph, particularly north and
west of I-44. Notably, NBM percentile data show high
probabilities (80-100%) of wind gusts greater than 40 mph for
this area. We will continue to monitor trends for potential
headline issuance. These gusty winds will produce the potential
for areas of elevated fire danger despite gradually increasing
moisture return.

Temperatures will climb above normal Friday as well, with
forecast highs in the low to mid 70s. The warming trend will
continue through the weekend into Monday, with highs in the mid
70s to near 80 on Sunday and Monday. These temperatures are
10-15 degrees above the climatological normal.

Global models depict an upper-level disturbance skirting the
Pacific coast Friday night into Saturday. As it does, an east-
west oriented surface front looks to set up across central
Missouri. With continued southerly flow, there may be just
enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers along the boundary
as early as Friday night and continuing through Saturday.
Ensemble members depict varying solutions, however, so
confidence is low, and current NBM PoPs generally remain 30% or
less and are largely confined to central Missouri.

Better shower and thunderstorm chances are introduced Sunday
into Monday as the aforementioned upper-level disturbance
ejects out of the Southwest. At the surface, a low pressure
system will shift east through the Plains, with a dryline
extending south into Texas and a warm front extending east
across central Missouri. Although important details remain
unclear (such as how far south the trough digs), LREF clusters
have shown gradually increasing consistency in the overall
synoptic pattern. Increasing moisture return across a broad warm
sector over the region may be supportive of severe thunderstorm
development. Trough timing and magnitude will determine when
and if the better dynamics coincide with the instability and
moisture, which will influence storm organization. CSU machine
learning product continues to highlight the potential for severe
weather for our area, and notably, the CIPS severe analog has
shown increasing probabilities over the last several runs.

Given the uncertainty in the timing of the Sunday/Monday
system, precipitation chances Tuesday are questionable. Current
NBM chances drop below 15% Tuesday afternoon. Much cooler
temperatures move in behind this system, with forecast highs in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Southwest winds will
gradually increase at the start of the period to 10-15 kt at the
SGF and JLN sites.

Winds will increase further after 06Z as a low-level jet
approaches southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. This jet
will produce low-level wind shear that will persist into Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KUNO: 82/1963
KVIH: 80/1967

April 1:
KUNO: 86/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1:
KSGF: 62/1946

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Camden


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