Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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404 FXUS63 KSGF 012244 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 544 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally lower rain chances this afternoon and tonight and increasing on Thursday. - The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend and early next week with highest chances on Saturday. - Temperatures will remain above average through at least the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor and upper level analysis show upper level low pressure over Montana with a large scale trough extending south of the low into the great basin. Broad southwesterly flow was occuring ahead of the trough from the desert southwest and into our forecast area. Surface analysis has a weak surface boundary draped west to east across southern Missouri. Temperatures were in the low to mid 70s and dew points were in the mid 50s to low 60s. Some southwest to northeast moving showers and thunderstorms were occurring from south central Kansas into northwest Missouri. Tonight - Thursday: Some upper level energy embedded in the southwest to northeast flow and a northward moving frontal boundary may contribute to some of that scattered convection affecting our west and northwest portion of the CWA late this afternoon into tonight. The majority of the moisture and instability should remain west of our area though and the best convection will remain west of the area. The large scale upper trough will begin to lift negatively tilted to the northeast on Thursday over the northern plains into the upper Mississippi valley, with a surface front shifting slowly east into the CWA. While instability does not look overly impressive over the area, there will be an increase in the moisture along with better jet dynamics and a surface front and boundaries to support more widespread convection(60-85% chance). The higher pops will be in the west which will limit temperatures in the 70s while the east could see low to mid 80s for highs. QPF amounts will be highly dependent on where the best convective redevelopment in the afternoon can set up, which will generally be along the eastward moving boundary. Highest QPF totals are currently along with US 65 corridor where a half inch to inch and a quarter will be possible. With all of the recent rain late last week into the weekend, this could lead to some additional flooding over the area. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms on Thursday with hail to the size of quarters and 60 mph winds with the stronger convection. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Precipitation chances will continue into Thursday night and most of the activity should end to the east on Friday morning. After a brief dry period Friday into Friday night, the next wave of energy will bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to the area on Saturday and then another shortwave on Sunday with additional chances of rain. A deeper upper trough will push into the plains on Monday before lifting negatively tilted to the northeast late Monday into Monday night and should bring additional convection to the area Monday night into Tuesday. SPC does have a 15% region highlighted just to our west for the Monday day 6 outlook. With the nearly daily chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area and the recent heavy rainfall from the past week that continues with elevated river levels, will need to monitor for additional flooding in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 544 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Surface low pressure will move east across the Plains tonight. Southerly winds will increase and become gusty early Thursday morning and continue through the evening hours. Low level winds shear will also be possible late this evening into early Thursday morning. As the surface low moves east scattered showers and storms will develop across the region late Thursday morning into early Thursday evening and could impact the TAF sites at times. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Wise