847
FXUS63 KSGF 042327
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) through this
  evening, most areas remain dry.

- Widespread rainfall will occur on Sunday with a slight risk
  for excessive rainfall (2/4) and localized flooding. No severe
  weather expected on Sunday.

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night into
  Tuesday, especially for areas west of Highway 65. SPC
  highlights a Slight Risk (2/5) for this area. Primary hazards
  are damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Unsettled weather will persist through mid-week. Additional
  chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast rainfall
  during this period between 1 to 3 inches may support a
  localized flooding threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Through Tonight: Broad southwest flow over the central CONUS
continues to support unsettled weather. Recent satellite imagery
and observations depict the approach of a frontal boundary into
the area this afternoon. Ahead of the frontal boundary, coverage
has remained minimal across the area. The strongest forcing has
remained south of the area, keeping scattered showers and
thunderstorms suppressed across northern Arkansas. Expect the
frontal boundary and associated shortwave to translate through
the region as we progress through this afternoon and evening.
Recent hi-res guidance suggests a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across portions of southern Missouri,
or along and south of Interstate 44. Overall, coverage is not
expected to be widespread. An analysis of the environment
suggests some instability (1000-1500 J/kg) ahead of the frontal
passage, with rather marginal deep layer shear around 20 to 25
knots. Quality low-level moisture remains present, with surface
dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. However, mid and high
level moisture content remains unimpressive at less than 50%
through the column. Given the setup, there is a low chance for
an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm through this evening.
Primary hazards include quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
Otherwise, a rather dry and pleasant evening for most of the
area. By tonight, the frontal passage slides southeast through
the area with slightly cooler temperatures. Lows vary from lower
50s (north) to upper 50s (south).

Sunday: As quick as one shortwave exits, additional energy
builds out of the Southern Plains overnight tonight into Sunday
afternoon. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to
develop late tonight into early Sunday morning across southeast
Kansas into southwest Missouri ahead of a building MCS across
Oklahoma. As forcing increases through morning into the
afternoon, expect coverage to increase with widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms (60-80% PoPs). While the forcing
appears more favorable for widespread coverage, instability and
shear are weak. No severe thunderstorms are expected at this
time through Sunday. Meanwhile, the attention turns towards
localized heavy rainfall and potential flooding. PWAT values are
forecast to be around a 1.25 to 1.50 inches across far
southeast Kansas into southern Missouri. This will support
efficient rainfall rates in this area. HREF Probability-Matched
Mean (PMM) hints at localized corridors of heavier rainfall of
1 to 1.5 inches. This will be of particular concern where
thunderstorms repeat over the same areas. Additionally, the
ground remains rather saturated from previous rainfalls (see
Hydrology section). These factors may support a localized flash
flood threat through Sunday afternoon/evening, though confidence
is not high enough to issue a Flood Watch at this time.
Continue to monitor the forecast over the next 12 hours. A bit
cooler on Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Rain exits the area from west to east Sunday night into
early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Monday-Wednesday: A strong negatively tilted upper level trough
moves across the Central Plains into early next week. This
feature may be slow to progress, bringing several days of
potential unsettled weather. This includes the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall.
Daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

For Monday, guidance suggests plenty of dry time through late
morning and afternoon, outside of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm (10-30%). As the upper level trough digs a bit
further south into the region, an associated cold front will be
the focus for showers and thunderstorms. While there remains
some discrepancies among some ensemble members on exact timing,
the general consensus is that showers and thunderstorms
increase in coverage across the west into Monday night. Recent
trends continue to highlight the most favorable environment for
severe thunderstorms sets up along and west of Interstate 49
corridor. In this area, forecast soundings depict instability
around 2000-3000 J/kg in the vicinity of deep layer shear around
35 to 40 knots. Further east, the instability and shear
profiles become less impressive. SPC highlights an Enhanced
Severe Weather Outlook (3/5) just to the west of the area across
central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, the Slight
risk (2/5) extends eastward to the Highway 65 corridor in our
area. It should be noted, there is a hatched area (10% or
greater probability of significant severe weather) that includes
our two western rows of counties. This would include the Fort
Scott down to Pittsburg, KS area over to the Nevada down to
Anderson areas. All severe hazards remain plausible with this
setup, though damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary
concerns. As activity shifts further east through Monday night
into early Tuesday morning, expect intensity to decrease as the
environment becomes less favorable.

By Tuesday morning, overnight activity will be ongoing. A
secondary low pressure system and associated warm front lift
north back through the area on Tuesday. There is remaining
uncertainty on the potential for destabilization into Tuesday
afternoon/evening across the eastern portions of the area,
though the environment would support the threat for additional
strong to severe thunderstorms. Tuesday`s risk remains rather
conditional at this time, and will need to be evaluated further in
future forecast updates. Additional strong to severe
thunderstorm chances persist into Wednesday, though the remains
uncertainty on the exact timing and location of mesoscale
features.

The potential for localized heavy rainfall will need to be
monitored closely through mid-week. At this time, widespread
flooding is not expected with 1 to 3 inches forecast across the
area, though localized flooding may occur.

Thursday-Friday: By Thursday, ensemble guidance begins to
diverge a bit. Nonetheless, current guidances suggests a cold
front slides through the area with additional low shower and
thunderstorm chances (10-30%) along the passage. Highs cool off
into the upper 60s to lower 70s into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A few showers and storms will remain possible across portions of
south central Missouri early this evening. This activity will
continue to slowly move east and dissipate this evening.

A surface boundary is moving through the region and will result
in northerly winds through the TAF period. An upper level trough
will move through the region on Sunday, bringing widespread
rain and some embedded thunderstorms to the area at times from
the morning hours into the afternoon hours. Ceiling and
visibilities will lower with the showers and storms with IFR
conditions possible Sunday morning and afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant
rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of
rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of
showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized
flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will
be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with
local higher amounts of rainfall through the period.

Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and
these will be monitored through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Wise
HYDROLOGY...Hatch