National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240256
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
956 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Cloud cover has increased more quickly this evening and to a
greater extent than guidance initially indicated. Updated sky
coverage grids to reflect this, meshing with mostly cloud to near
overcast skies areawide through the night. Incorporating the
latest CONSShort guidance, trended warmer by a degree or two on
lows, dropping into the lower 60s east to middle 60s west, with
increasing clouds limiting cooling, only reinforced by southerly
surface flow. As of this writing, development of rainfall within
the CWA before 12Z remains negligible in the PoP grids, but a few
showers north of the I-30 corridor before daybreak are not out of
the question, increasing in coverage and confidence into the
morning hours.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Dry conditions will begin to break down by tomorrow, allowing for
an extended period of stormy weather to work it`s way into the
region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
north of I-20, as the region comes under the influence of a cold
front moving through the Midwest. From there, we will more or less
become sandwiched between flow patterns for the rest of the
short-term, containing the rest of the rain chances to our north.
However, included in this "flow sandwich" will be a shift in the
flow aloft back to the south. This will allow for temperatures to
warm into the mid-80s in some locations over the next few days,
before temperatures really begin to increase towards the weekend.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

By the start of our long-term, the aforementioned "flow sandwich"
will finally begin to break down, as upper-level troughing really
begins to dig in to our west. In turn, upper-level ridging will
firmly take hold of the region, allowing for afternoon highs to
push into the upper-80s in some locations. However, the real story
of the long-term are multiple days of severe weather beginning on
Friday, and remaining through the weekend. Currently, the best
chances for severe weather appear to be on Friday afternoon, and
again during the evening/overnight hours on Sunday. Both of these
events will be in association with a squall line moving through
the region. There is still plenty of discrepancy in the overall
timing and extent of hazards anticipated, but at this time it
looks like all modes of severe weather will be possible both days.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will be possible with the convection
moving through the region on Friday, resulting in parts of the
region now being highlighted in a Slight ERO from the WPC.
Rainfall rates could be rather steep, with some locations picking
up 1-2 inches of rain in a few hour window

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue this evening, although extensive cu
cigs continue to rapidly spread ENE from E TX into SW AR/NW LA
attm, with these cigs expected to overspread the SHV/ELD
terminals by early to mid-evening, and MLU by or shortly after
06Z. These cigs may lower/become MVFR across E TX after 07Z
Wednesday, eventually spreading into SW AR/NW LA after 12Z. In
fact, an approaching weak sfc front that will enter extreme SE
OK/portions of SW AR overnight will eventually become stationary
after 12Z Wednesday, and will focus a longer duration of MVFR cigs
over extreme NE TX/Srn AR through the morning, with brief IFR cigs
possible between 12-15Z across the E TX terminals. MVFR cigs
generally along/S of I-20 should eventually lift and become VFR
by/after 18Z, although the lower cigs farther N near the front
will take a bit longer to return to VFR. The front will also focus
isolated to widely scattered convection through the day, but
should remain mostly N of the TXK/ELD terminals, and thus, low
confidence precludes mention in the TAFs attm. S winds 3-7kts
tonight will become WSW around 5kts by 15Z over extreme NE TX/SW
AR/N LA, but remain S 5-7kts across E TX. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  83  65  85 /   0  20  10  10
MLU  60  81  63  85 /   0  20  10  10
DEQ  63  74  60  79 /  10  40  40  40
TXK  64  78  64  82 /  10  30  30  20
ELD  62  77  60  82 /  10  30  20  20
TYR  66  81  66  82 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  65  81  64  82 /   0  20  10  10
LFK  64  83  63  84 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...15