536
FXUS64 KSHV 042014
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
314 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A few showers and thunderstorms will persist through early this
evening, mainly across portions of Angelina, San Augustine, and
Sabine Counties along a stalled surface boundary. Most of the
heavier storms should remain south of the CWA. Farther north, more
isolated convection associated with a shortwave trough approaching
the Mississippi River should exit the area by early this evening.
In fact, most of the ongoing precip should end by sunset. However,
this break will only be temporary.

Another complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
develop across West Texas this evening and tonight as the next
shortwave trough strengthens while ejecting northeast across Texas
and towards the ArkLaTex. The HRRR and HREF have tended to perform
the best over the last couple of days, so this forecast more
closely follows those models versus the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF. This
is also results and earlier time of arrival of the leading edge
of the storms into Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas, which should
be between 05z-09z (midnight-4 AM CDT)tonight/Sunday morning. This
complex should weaken somewhat with eastward extent across the
forecast area Sunday morning, but an isolated severe weather
threat cannot be ruled out. Damaging winds and large hail should
be the main threat.

The forecast becomes more uncertain after mid to late Sunday
morning. The HRRR suggests a notable lack of convection across
most of the CWA with the exception of the far northern and far
southern zones, probably because the atmosphere should be worked
over. However, there may be some recovery during the day, which
should allow for renewed, and likely more scattered development.
This is most likely across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas,
and Northeast Texas where lift will be maximized with the
shortwave trough. Farther south, a series of thunderstorms
complexes with the potential to produce locally heavy rain is
possible as a secondary wave in the flow aloft moves across
Southeast Texas. Current thinking is that most of this convection
should remain just south of the CWA. It is somewhat concerning,
and worth noting, that the NAM brings this heavy rain threat into
Deep East Texas Sunday afternoon, which would increase the risk
for flooding.

There is a moderate risk for excessive rainfall in portions of
Deep East Texas on Sunday per WPC. For our area, this appears to
be associated mainly with the morning convection. While locally
heavy rain is possible, the risk for flooding is expected to be
short-lived and localized at this time, especially as compared to
areas just south and southwest. Therefore, we opted to forego
issuing a Flood Watch. Overall, an additional 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are possible through
Sunday evening in Deep East Texas.

Rain chances should finally diminish from southwest to northeast
Sunday night and early Monday morning.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Strong southwesterly flow aloft associated with a powerful upper
low across the Northern Plains combined with a deep low-level
southerly flow will keep a rather abundant pool of moisture
throughout the atmospheric column. With a cold front northwest of
the area, this will keep near daily chances for scattered
convection in the forecast for much of next week. Sufficient
instability and deep layer shear will also result in at least some
threat for severe storms each day. The highest rain chances and
corresponding chances for severe weather should be Wednesday and
possibly into Thursday as a cold front finally approaches and
moves across the area. The greatest coverage and best rain chances
can be expected in the afternoons and evenings.

Surface ridging should finally build into the area by Friday and
into Saturday providing enough subsidence and dry air advection to
bring most of our rain chances to an end. While the deterministic
GFS and ECMWF remove all chances for rain, the ensembles and the
NBM still keep some light QPF and slight chances for rain in the
forecast as one more shortwave trough dives south along the
Mississippi River to start the weekend.

With the strong southerly surface flow at the beginning of the
week, strong warm air advection can also be expected. With showers
and thunderstorms being more of a scattered nature, temperatures
will be able to climb ever upwards. Confidence continues to
increase regarding unseasonably high temperatures, especially next
Tuesday through Thursday. NBM probabilities of high temperatures
of at least 90 deg F are now on the order of 80 to 90 percent in
some portions of Louisiana by Wednesday. With peak heat index
values near the century mark, the hot and humid conditions will be
more typical of mid June versus early May.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some MVFR ceilings linger near far western terminals around 18z
this afternoon but conditions are largely VFR across the area and
will remain so. Expect scattered convection through mid-late
afternoon, becoming more isolated towards the evening before a
brief dry period headed into the overnight hours. Expect the cu
field to largely diminish after sunset, with a mid/high level
ceiling. Then after midnight, rain chances will increase quickly
and significantly from west to east into early Sunday morning,
with ceilings also quickly deteriorating to MVFR, accompanied by
pockets of IFR. Vsbys also likely to reduce to mainly MVFR within
the rain shield. Embedded thunderstorms also likely. Rain will
taper to showers from west to east through Sunday morning, with
little recovery in ceilings thru 18z. Winds mainly S-SE through
the period 5-10kts, becoming slightly higher 8-12kts Sunday
morning in and around the storm system.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  79  68  85 /  70 100  30  40
MLU  67  80  66  86 /  20  60  40  40
DEQ  64  73  63  80 /  70 100  30  30
TXK  67  75  66  84 /  70 100  40  40
ELD  65  76  63  83 /  30  80  40  40
TYR  67  79  68  85 /  90  80  20  20
GGG  67  78  67  84 /  90 100  20  30
LFK  67  80  68  86 /  80 100  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23