National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSJT 200848
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
348 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

As of 3 AM, scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring over
the northern Big Country, in an area of isentropic lift. With this
elevated convection, small hail is possible with a few of the
storms. A mid-level shortwave trough will move east across New
Mexico today, and into West Texas this evening. With the attendant
lift/upper support from the approaching shortwave trough into a
moist environment (precipitable water values 1 to 1.5 inches), a
more widespread rain event will unfold for our area mainly this
afternoon and early evening, but possibly developing around midday.
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
this morning. A larger and more organized area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop just west of our area around
midday, and move east across our area this afternoon and early
evening, before exiting our eastern and southeastern counties early
tonight.

The convection is expected to be elevated, but mid-level lapse rates
will support a possibility of hail with the stronger storms. The
area generally south of a line from Brownwood to Water Valley to the
Panhandle of northwest Tom Green County is in a Marginal risk for
severe storms in the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. The main hail
concern is with the more organized area of storms which will move
through this afternoon. For today into early tonight, rainfall
amounts look to be generally between one-half inch and 1.25
inches, with localized amounts over 1.5 inches possible. Heavy
rain in a short period of time may result in street/roadway
flooding, and minor flooding of low-lying areas.

Temperatures will remain cool today and tonight, with cloudy skies
and northeast or north-northeast winds. Highs today are expected to
range from mostly the mid 50s in the Big Country, to the mid 60s in
our southern counties. Seeing indications in a few of the models
for these highs to be in the early to mid-morning hours, with
temperatures dropping off a few degrees and then remaining steady
through the rest of the day. Overnight lows tonight should be
mostly in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

On Sunday morning, the mid-level trough axis that will have brought
much-needed rain to west central Texas should move eastward to
the Mississippi Valley. This should bring rain chances to an end.
However, cloud cover and cool conditions should persist as a
surface high will settle in across much of central Texas and
reinforce the inversion already in place.

For Monday and Tuesday of next week, the surface high will move
eastward and generate southerly return flow.  Skies will clear out
and temperatures should warm back up into the 70s and 80s through
Wednesday.

By mid-week, models show the potential for another frontal boundary,
this one much weaker, to drop into north Texas, while an upper-level
shortwave trough approaches west Texas.  This could generate more
chances for showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday.
However, there are significant timing differences between global
models with respect to the arrival of the upper level trough and
how far south the surface front will go. For now, rain chances
were kept fairly low until models get into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

As of 1240 AM, have widespread low cloud cover over the area with
MVFR ceilings. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
developed over the Big Country, with spotty rain showers farther
south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight
into Saturday morning across the northern third to half of the
area, with isolated to scattered showers farther south. Outside of
shower/thunderstorm activity, cloud ceilings are expected to lower
into the IFR category. Indications are for more organized showers
and thunderstorms to develop just west of the area in the late
morning or midday, and for this convection to move east across
West Central Texas this afternoon and early evening. Visibility
reductions are expected in heavy rain accompanying the showers and
storms. Some risk of hail for mainly the TAF sites south of KABI
this afternoon. While winds are initially from the east- northeast
at the TAF sites south of KABI, but expect the main wind
direction to be from the northeast late tonight and during the day
Saturday. Showers and storms should move east of the area later
Saturday evening and Saturday night. Low cloud cover will remain
through the night with mostly IFR ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     56  45  62  41 /  90  70   0   0
San Angelo  61  46  63  42 /  90  60   0   0
Junction    67  48  66  45 /  90  60   0   0
Brownwood   60  47  62  42 /  90  70   0   0
Sweetwater  55  45  60  43 /  90  60  10   0
Ozona       65  48  62  46 /  90  40   0   0
Brady       64  48  61  43 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19