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000
FXUS66 KSTO 101208
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
508 AM PDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather continues through Thursday. A period of
unsettled weather is then expected as a weak weather system arrives
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Temperatures today will continue to warm with most locations
warming into the low 80s. Not a lot of change in temperatures are
expected for Thursday over the north with continued warming over
the southern Sacramento Valley, Delta and Northern San Joaquin
valley ahead of the low pressure system that will start to deepen
in the Gulf of Alaska.

Models are continuing to indicate some showers and possible
isolated thunderstorm over the northern mountains Thursday night
with a 5 to 20 percent probability of any precipitation.

The low deepens off the coast on Friday and some showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible with most of the activity
expected over the north end of the valley and over the foothill
and mountain areas. Generally during the day it should be more dry
than wet for most areas. Snow levels will be high and above pass
levels 7000 to 8500 feet during the day so no impacts are
expected from any snow. Probabilities increased a little for any
precipitation with a 25 to 70 percent probability of any
precipitation through Friday evening for the valley with the
highest probability over the north.

As the center of the low moves to off the central coast Friday
night precipitation may increase over the interior. Greatest
chance of thunderstorms will be over the Motherlode and into the
lower mountain elevations with a 20 to 30 percent chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening. Snow levels
will lower late at night down to around 5500 to 6000 feet with
only light amounts of snow forecast Friday night.

Unsettled weather will continue on Saturday when most of the
precipitation is expected. Isolated thunderstorms continue to be a
threat but mainly over the mountains. Snow levels will lower
Saturday night to around 4500 to 5000 feet. Models have trended a
little wetter with probabilities of precipitation increasing with
last evenings model run.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...

Upper low progged inland Sunday with model differences with rate
of progression. NBM showing bulk of POPs Sunday to be in the
foothills and mountains with light QPF. Upper level ridging will
result in dry weather Monday into Wednesday with high temperatures
slightly above normal. Gusty north to east wind expected over
portions of interior NorCal Tuesday into Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs with sfc wind
generally below 12 kts.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$