796
FXUS62 KTAE 011449
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1049 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Slight adjustments were made to PoPs with an increase near our FL
Big Bend and southernmost GA counties given an increase in
confidence with storms this afternoon. Otherwise, no other changes
have been made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Areas of fog will be a concern through the mid-morning hours. Fog
will then dissipate leaving partly cloudy skies for the remainder of
the day. There may be just enough lingering low level moisture and
weak surface convergence for isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon centered across the Florida big bend and far southwest
Georgia. Highs are expected to be mostly in the mid 80s across
inland locations with overnight lows in the mid 60s. Another round
of fog is also possible tonight.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

The extended forecast remains unchanged, a pair of shortwaves still
look to move across the southeast this weekend. The first one on
Saturday looks to move directly overhead, allowing for some decent
forcing for ascent. Our best rain chances look to be across our SW
Georgia counties, with lower probabilities as one moves southwest
towards the FL Panhandle. On Sunday a shortwave further to our north
moves northeast. Forcing for ascent will be weaker with this
shortwave, leading to lower precip chances than the Saturday
shortwave. Regardless of the day, scattered showers and a few storms
could be possible. Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise,
ridging aloft will allow quiet weather to prevail outside of this
weekend.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Areas of fog this morning will lift by mid-morning with VFR
conditions prevailing for the remainder of the day. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, but the
chance appears too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Another
round of fog is expected tonight, possibly dense in spots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure takes over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico the rest of
the week, leading to more tranquil boating conditions. Light winds
are expected with seas generally 2 feet or less into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

There are no large scale fire weather concerns expected over the
next few days. Dispersions are expected to be on the low side this
afternoon due to weak transport winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Minor flooding continues along the Lower Suwannee River. Additional
riverine flooding is not expected, generally less than half an inch
of rain is forecast through the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  65  90  65 /  30  20  10   0
Panama City   82  67  84  66 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        85  64  89  64 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        86  64  89  66 /  20  10  10   0
Valdosta      86  66  90  67 /  20  10  10   0
Cross City    86  63  90  65 /  20  10  10   0
Apalachicola  78  68  80  68 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Oliver