Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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031 FXUS63 KTOP 061911 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread severe storms still on track to impact the entire forecast area late this afternoon through early evening. All hazards, especially widespread damaging wind gusts are expected. - Quiet and mild conditions return Tuesday onward, providing a much needed break in severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 No major changes made to the forecast as a very dynamic upper trough axis is observed rotating through the western high plains, progged to eject eastward by late afternoon into the evening hours. Foci for initation lies along a north to south oriented dryline boundary with a trailing cold front towards far western Kansas. Increasing low level moisture ahead of the boundary near a pseudo warm front is also of note as MLCAPE values are quickly increasing above 2000 J/KG southwest of ICT. In addition to the line or broken segment of storms progged to enter the CWA after 21Z, concern is growing for the possibility of isolated discrete supercells forming over south central to east central KS before moving northeast in the 22Z-02Z time frame. Based on the impressive environment and strong low level SRH ahead of the dryline, all hazards, including very large hail (2 inch +) and a strong tornado or two would be likely with any discrete cells. The more likely scenario and hazard for this event will be the line of storms that strengthens east into the early evening hours as the mid level jet max ejects east into the plains. Short term CAMS have remained consistent in timing and evolution of a QLCS cluster, including possible storm mergers along the leading edge that could further increase the potential for brief, tornadoes. Strong effective bulk shear from 0-3 km and steep mid level lapse rates lend to high confidence in 70+ mph winds being sustained with the line of storms, in addition to hail around ping pong ball size and the weak tornadoes that may form along the leading edge. Severe storms along with the cold front exit the region by 06Z this evening, bringing calmer and drier weather to the CWA from Tuesday onward. There may be a brief wave that passes through the westerly flow aloft Tuesday evening across far northern and eastern areas, bringing possible light rain to the area, otherwise rain chances are minimal throughout the week as the northern and southern stream jets bypass the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Scattered showers currently impacting KTOP/KFOE should exit by 18Z as southerly winds gradually increase from 15 to 20 kts sustained by late afternoon. This should mix low MVFR cloud bases up to near 2kft ahead of the front and line of TSRA that will likely impact terminals west to east aft 23Z. Storms should clear the area by 06Z as a drier airmass lifts cigs back to VFR for the remainder of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Prieto