Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 241116

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
516 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low centered over
northwest Wyoming/southwest Montana with high pressure east of the
area over the central plains. At the surface, there is a trough
extending through eastern Wyoming, near the South Dakota Border.
Radar imagery is still showing some lingering showers/storms over
south central South Dakota.

For today, upper low will move to the northeast into eastern
Saskatchewan/western Manitoba while the surface trough/cold front
pushes through the forecast area. Not really any cold air to speak
of, with temperatures today warmer than yesterday - in the upper 70s
to upper 80s. However, the main result from the front will be mainly
dry conditions, lower dewpoints, and westerly surface winds.

An upper ridge will quickly build over the Rockies Friday, before
moving east into the western high plains on Saturday. Expect the
axis of the thermal ridge to be centered over the forecast area
on Saturday. This will bring very warm temperatures with readings
in the upper 80s to mid 90s. It will also allow for an isolated
afternoon thunderstorm to develop over the higher terrain of
northeastern Wyoming or the Black Hills.

The ridge shifts east on Sunday as an upper low strengthens over the
Great Basin area. Moisture will increase as the upper trough/low
begins to affect the northern Plains. This will bring a period of
active weather with good chances for thunderstorms Sunday through
Tuesday. The upper low exits the area by Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 514 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR conditions expected through Friday morning. The exception will
be isolated thunderstorms over the Black Hills area this afternoon
and evening.




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