Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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574 FXUS63 KUNR 281041 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 441 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread precipitation moves in this morning across western SD, mainly east and south of Rapid City. - More seasonable temperatures move in Monday and through the week, with near daily chances for showers/storms. - Elevated fire conditions for Monday and especially Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper low situated over western Nebraska this morning, with upper ridge over the Great Lakes region. Northeasterly surface flow is ongoing with temps in the 30s to low 40s across the region. Radar is picking up some patchy light drizzle potential this morning over far western SD, and highlighting the more widespread precipitation moving up into south central SD. Aformentioned upper low swings up into eastern SD today, and wrap around moisture will over spread from south central SD into western SD this morning into the afternoon. The more easterly track of the low compared to previous model runs will limit the moisture to mostly east and south of Rapid City and the Black Hills, with the highest amounts expected from central to eastern SD. Ensemble probability of QPF amounts greater than 0.25" are 60 to 90 percent to the east and south of Wall SD, while areas west and north of Wall drop to below 30 percent relatively quickly. Precipitation tapers off from west to east this afternoon and evening, as the upper low slides up into MN, and weak upper ridge builds across the Rockies into the northern plains. Upper ridge will allow for the warmest day of the week on Monday, with highs climbing back into the 60s. Active upper flow will allow for almost daily chances for showers and storms as flow becomes more zonal, highlighting multiple disturbances. A quick moving shortwave and associated frontal boundary moves just north of the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breezy dry air behind the front will result in potentially advisory level winds and elevated fire conditions on Tuesday. Limited moisture with any of the disturbances early this week will keep low precipitation amounts with any showers and storms that develop Mon-Weds. Increasing gulf moisture later in the week may allow for more significant active weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued At 438 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A disturbance combined with upslope flow over western SD will lead to dz/ra most of the day with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions. Some slow improvement will occur over far western SD later tonight. Northeastern WY will remain mostly VFR through the period, save for local MVFR/IFR conditions near the Black Hills today. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Helgeson