Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 241638
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1038 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
300 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

-Strong Spring Storm will bring widespread snow today into Monday.

-Higher snow accumulations over northwest South Dakota today,
 shifting into south central South Dakota tonight.

-Period of mixed freezing rain/snow along and south of I-90
 today. Greatest ice accumulation over south central South Dakota.

-Increasing winds will bring widespread blizzard conditions across
 south central South Dakota tonight through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Current surface map places elongated low across central Wyoming
into eastern Colorado. Mix of precipitation across the forecast
area, with snow across northwest South Dakota and freezing
rain/snow across south central South Dakota. Strong shortwave
ejects out of western CONUS trough today/tonight with surface low
deepening across eastern Colorado today then tracking through Iowa
late Monday. Best QG forcing today resides along low/mid level
baroclinic zone that currently arcs from eastern Montana through
central South Dakota. Baroclinic zone tightens and pivots over
central South Dakota today/tonight, with western portion rotating
southeastward through western South Dakota today and stalling out
over south central South Dakota tonight. Then is shifts a bit
more eastward Monday night. Highest snowfall rates (>1") will be
associated within this zone. Overall total accumulations will be
in the 3-6" for much of western South Dakota...highest over the
northwest. For south central South Dakota, the freezing rain/snow
this morning may transition to rain as warm air aloft nudges
northward...then change over to all snow late this
afternoon/evening. Strongest winds occur over south central South
Dakota tonight/Monday with widespread blizzard conditions.
Overall, snowfall totals have trended downward over western South
Dakota...with minor adjustments over south central South Dakota.
Slight changes made to headlines to account for this, mainly for
earlier end times as snow shifts south.

Chilly temperatures continue Tuesday. Upper level ridge shifts
across the area Wednesday/Thursday with thermal profiles boosting
temperatures into the 50s. Areas with deeper snow will limit
temperatures from reaching the full potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1035 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Widespread IFR CIGS will be located over the region this afternoon
through tonight. Areas of -SN will continue across most of
western SD into NE WY. Mixed rain, freezing rain and snow are
possible along and south of I-90 today. Gusty winds will develop
today, increasing over western South Dakota tonight, IFR/LCL LIFR
conditions in falling and blowing snow are expected tonight. -SN
will begin to taper off from west to east late in the TAF period
though MVFR/IFR conditions with locally IFR conditions will
persist for most of the region through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT Monday for SDZ001-002-013-
     078.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for SDZ012-024>026-
     031-042-072-073-076.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Monday for SDZ014-032-043.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for SDZ044-046-047-049-077.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Monday
     for SDZ044-077.
     Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     SDZ046-047-049.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for WYZ057-060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...Wong


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