Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 170157

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
757 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 756 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Will let remaining advisory expire. Will see some areas of fog
develop overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A few bands of snow located north or Rapid City in northwest South
Dakota. Have extended winter weather advisory for another two
hours for that area. Otherwise, have let remainder of headlines
expire. A brief period of freezing drizzle is still possible on
the plains east of the Black Hills into south central South
Dakota. With setting sun, wet roadways may become icy.


.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Staunch upper level low over the central plains is beginning to
move off to the east after stalling for a bit this morning. This
system has supported sig icing over parts of scentral SD with
heavy wet snow over a large portion of the western SD plains. Lift
is beginning to wane over far western SD and will continue to do
so this afternoon, supporting an overall downtrend in snow
intensity. Strong March sun has also helped limit additional
accums on treated roads. Will leave most of the adv/warning out,
with some trimming over far SW SD and NE WY. As the mid level dry
slot works north, snow will likely end across the eastern FA with
freezing drizzle returning for a period this evening.

Attention then turns toward the remainder of the western CONUS
trough, which will eject into the central plains later this
weekend. The track of this system has been wavering in model runs,
with the latest solutions trending a little north and west. This
would also support some precip into the area as early a possibly
late Sat night. This system will have a decent WAA signal, which
would support some potential for freezing rain and sleet. Any snow
accums still look to favor the eastern half of the fa, more
toward central SD attm, however this will likely change, esp if
the associated jet streak trends further north. Other than this
system which would progress through the area in the Sunday-Monday
period, the only other chance for precip looks to be toward the
end of next week as another strong trough is progged to advect
through the region.

As for temps, have lowered highs for Sat where sig snow has
fallen today. Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temps can be
expected through the middle of next week. Deep ridging ahead of
the system late next week will likely support a decent warm up
then, esp in areas where a sig amount of the recent snow has


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 506 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Snow will end across western South Dakota this evening, with
snow/freezing rain ending in south central South Dakota.
Conditions will gradually improve this evening, however some
areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist into tonight. Areas of fog
are likely to develop late tonight into Saturday morning across
much of the area, especially western South Dakota.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-

WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ071.



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