Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 210858
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
358 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A closed upper low over the central and southern Rockies this
morning will track east southeast across the central and southern
Plains states tonight and Sunday. Hi-Res model solutions keep most
of the precip across the eastern half of the forecast area today
with drier conditions in the west. Some patchy fog likely across
the western portions of the Panhandles mainly this morning.
Northwesterly flow aloft will develop on the backside of the
departing upper low Sunday into early next week.

Initially, the northwesterly flow aloft will be dry early in the
period however northern stream closed upper low tracks south and
east out of the northern and central Rockies Tuesday. Upper
low/short wave trough then moves through the central Plains states
by Wednesday and Wednesday night. Surface low develops over the
southern Rockies Monday and Monday night which will bring a cold
front through the Panhandles Tuesday along with chances for
convection Tuesday through Wednesday.

An active northern stream and northwesterly flow aloft keeps
chances for convection by Thursday and Thursday night as another
upper trough tracks south and east towards the Panhandles by late
next week. Cold front to push into the forecast area by late
Thursday and then warmer and drier by next weekend. ECMWF much
more bullish with precip Thursday into early Friday than the GFS
but just too early to have such high confidence in the ECMWF
solution at this time.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  39  66  41  74 /  20  10   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  53  40  63  39  71 /  50  10   0   0   5
Boise City OK              52  36  63  38  72 /  20  10   0   0   5
Borger TX                  56  40  66  43  74 /  40  10   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              59  38  67  41  77 /  20  10   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  61  38  67  41  75 /  20  10   0   5   5
Clarendon TX               60  41  67  42  72 /  50  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 56  37  66  40  74 /  20  10   0   5   5
Guymon OK                  54  38  65  39  73 /  40  10   0   0   5
Hereford TX                61  38  68  42  76 /  20   5   0   5   5
Lipscomb TX                55  41  65  40  71 /  50  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   54  40  64  41  71 /  50  10   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                58  43  67  42  72 /  60  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62  43  69  43  73 /  60  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/11


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