Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 211043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Quiet weather continues...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Northeast surface flow rotating around
sprawling surface high pressure centered to our north, upper level
northwest winds on front-side of developing mid level ridge axis well
to our west...the perfect combination to keep seasonably chilly
conditions centered across the Great Lakes. Above also producing a
growing stretch of dry weather as they work in tandem to keep active
baroclinic axes well to our south and west. Plenty of high clouds
streaming overhead, and much like the previous few nights, waiting
on the development of some shallow Lake Huron induced clouds across
portions of northeast lower Michigan.

Despite somewhat transient larger scale features, with even the
approach of rather sharp shortwave trough toward the northern Lakes
Thursday morning, persistent dry northerly flow will continue to
result in dry and cool conditions through the near term.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Same as the last few and temperature trends.

Details: High clouds this morning expected to slowly thin out this
afternoon, leaving behind plenty of filtered sunshine. Still
expecting those shallow lake clouds into parts of northeast lower
Michigan this morning, with moisture perhaps just deep enough to
kick off a few flurries. These clouds expected to mix out a bit
quicker than yesterday as thermal profiles moderate just a tad and
winds back a bit more northerly. Speaking of those modifying thermal
profiles, they should support afternoon temperatures a smidge warmer
than those observed yesterday, with readings largely ranging through
the 30s across both peninsulas. These readings are still a few
degrees below what is considered normal for this time of year.

Clearing established this afternoon should continue right through
tonight as upper level moisture continues to thin. Unlike the last
few nights, not expecting any of those lake clouds as flow remains
northerly and low level thermal profiles appear just a bit to "mild"
for much moisture flux. Those clearing skies and light winds will
again produce good radiational cooling conditions, forcing
temperatures to dip into the teens by morning for most areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...More Quiet but Chilly Weather...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

Perhaps some cloudiness from a decaying upper low dropping south out
of Canada Thursday into Thursday night. Otherwise, a strong surface
ridge of high pressure building in from the north should yield quiet
but chilly weather. Temperatures remaining at least a few degrees
below normal. Have lowered model blended temperatures by a couple of
degrees during the day and by several at night (very cold low level

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Moderating Temperatures...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

The strong ridge of high pressure will take its time moving by to
our north this weekend. As it moves off to our east, the chilly
temperatures will moderate as we get into a milder return flow. Can
then expect much milder readings going into early next week. High
pressure should keep the region dry through much if not all of
Monday. A front and possible area of low pressure moving up from the
south will bring increasing rain chances Monday night and especially
Tuesday. Most areas in northern lower will make a run at 50 degrees
Monday into Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Just beginning to see evidence of MVFR lake stratus developing
across portions of northeast lower Michigan. Do not think it will
become as extensive or last as long as yesterday, so will keep
just scattered wording in the Alpena taf this morning. Elsewhere,
just continued higher level cloud passing through. NE winds this
morning will steadily back to north and northwest later today and
tonight. No vis restrictions expected.


Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Weakening pressure gradient will allow winds to slowly
subside as they back northerly today and tonight. Lake Huron small
craft advisories should be allowed to expire by later this morning.
Winds further back to northwest Thursday and Thursday night, with
speeds increasing just a bit, especially across northern Lake Huron.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for


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