Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 250205

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
805 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018


Minor update this evening to PoPs and weather. Updated pops to
reflect current conditions and expected progression of weather
across the region this evening and overnight. Chose to remove
mention of thunder from the forecast, since was updating weather
anyway. AAG


.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

A shortwave and associated cold front continues eastward through
the area, spreading isolated to scattered showers across the
plains. Showers are expected to linger over eastern areas into
tonight. Winds will increase across the west this afternoon and
early evening as well with pressure falls to the east. Winds
continue to be breezy, but should remain below advisory strength.

An upper level Pacific low and associated trof moves onto the
West Coast and east into the Great Basin on Sunday. This brings
moisture and energy into the region, and increasing precip
potential. Precip is expected to start as rain and change to snow
Sunday evening, as widespread precipitation develops over
southeast Montana and northern Wyoming. Latest model runs continue
to trend a bit slower, and currently favor bringing heaviest QPF
into the southeast a little later than previously advertised,
which could negatively impact snow totals. That said, models do
remain consistent in the overall pattern. This system still looks
like it should bring around a third of an inch of precip to the
southeast corner of Montana, and north central Wyoming, but
further attention will be need with regard to track and timing
during later shifts, to identify areas needing warnings or
advisories, or nothing at all. Activity clears out of the area
Monday evening/night. Dense fog will again be a concern on Monday
night, across any areas that do receive precip.

High temperatures will be in the 40s Sunday, and 30s and 40s on
Monday. Low temperatures in the 20s can be expected through Monday

We will continue to monitor streams/rivers for ice jams
and potential lowland flooding.AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Behind Monday`s system the region remains under a fairly steady
northwest flow aloft as high pressure tries to build along the
west coast and strong low pressure remains centered over the
northern Hudson Bay. Pattern does begin to shift Friday to a bit
more zonal and this remains through the weekend.

Main feature of the northwest flow will be a backdoor cold front
which will waffle back and forth across the area depending on
timing of shortwaves dropping down through the northwest flow
aloft. Expect no significant precipitation but scattered showers
will be possible most days through the period and temperatures at
or below normal. Caveat would be how much low clouds and fog are
generated by melting of the snow followed by upslope wind which
could hold temperatures back a few degrees.

As the flow aloft turns westerly slightly warmer temperatures can
be expected as the backdoor front should stay east of the area.
Would expect more sunshine but heights are still on the low side
to see anything warmer than the 50s. borsum



Showers will continue across southeast Montana through 10Z
generally. MVFR conditions are possible with these showers.
Expect VFR elsewhere. Towards 15Z expect some rain and snow to
start to move into KSHR. Reimer


    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
BIL 030/042 026/044 028/050 033/045 029/044 030/046 030/045
    32/R    43/S    11/B    34/W    43/W    32/W    22/W
LVM 024/042 024/043 027/050 034/048 030/048 033/051 030/049
    34/R    32/S    12/W    45/W    42/W    21/N    22/W
HDN 028/041 024/042 023/048 031/044 026/043 027/045 027/045
    32/R    44/S    11/B    44/W    43/W    32/W    32/W
MLS 028/042 025/040 025/046 032/040 026/039 026/040 023/040
    41/B    24/S    11/U    33/W    32/W    33/W    21/B
4BQ 029/041 025/038 020/044 031/042 025/041 026/043 025/043
    32/J    88/S    11/U    34/W    33/W    33/W    22/W
BHK 028/041 024/036 023/043 030/038 023/036 021/036 019/037
    31/B    35/S    11/U    33/W    23/W    33/W    21/B
SHR 029/042 025/038 020/047 029/044 026/044 027/047 028/047
    34/R    86/S    11/U    45/W    42/W    32/W    32/W


MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
      Monday afternoon FOR ZONES 32-33-36>38-58.
WY...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
      Monday afternoon FOR ZONES 98-99.


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