Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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898
FXUS63 KEAX 191901
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
201 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 149 PM CDT THU APR 19 2018

Northerly surface flow and resulting cold advection from this
morning has transitioned to northeasterly as of the early afternoon.
This trend will continue as a surface high over north central IA
pushes eastward, eventually bringing a brief period of weak warm
advection as surface flow transitions to southeasterly by Friday
afternoon. Upper-level ridging will maintain dry conditions and
mostly clear skies from now until Friday afternoon/evening.
Another cold night awaits tonight into Friday morning underneath
mostly clear sky conditions, combined with the residual cool air
mass currently in place. Conditions are once again favorable for
patchy frost early Friday morning. Overnight lows hover near
freezing for northeast MO, with values in the mid 30s elsewhere. A
brief warming trend then will push Friday afternoon highs back
into the 60s, albeit low 60s, for most of the area.


A deep upper low now centered over the west coast will continue to
deepen and advect over the southwestern CONUS by Friday night. While
the attendant surface low will remain well south of the CWA, local
slightly enhanced 850 hPa flow underneath associated PVA ahead of
the upper low may promote light rain showers as early as Saturday
morning. Latest model soundings suggest a less impressive dry layer
in the lower levels compared to previous runs, which would provide
an earlier onset of precip Saturday morning as well. With all said,
though, still expecting only brief periods of light rain Saturday
morning and afternoon, mainly south of the Missouri River as
overall forcing remains meager at this point, and better moisture
supply remains pinned further south. Additional light
precipitation is possible early Sunday, as the LLJ increases
coincident with the passage of the mid to upper low. This should
mark the first Sunday in April with no snow in the area.

Next week looks to be much more pleasant in terms of temperature
trends. A cold frontal passage Tuesday night and precip chances
ahead of the boundary will moderate an early week warming trend,
though temps will still be much closer to seasonal compared to
those as of late.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT THU APR 19 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
north to northeasterly surface winds becoming southeasterly by
Friday morning. Cloud cover will return to the area Friday
evening, with precip chances expected early Saturday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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