Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1045 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High pressure will continue across the area tonight. In addition,
mid and high level cloudiness will also continue to overspread the
CWFA. Temperatures will not be as cold as previous nights, with
values mostly in the 40s outside of the higher elevations. No
changes needed to the short term portion of the forecast, other
than to tweak the hourly temp/dew grids.

Did go ahead and make one minor change to the Sunday night period.
With temps near/slightly above freezing and a chance for precip,
have tweaked the ptype to rain OR freezing rain.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Swaths of mid level moisture allowing for continued alto deck for
parts of the north and west in the near term and into Saturday.
Increasing chance in the far north overnight for some isolated
showers but overall weak forcing. Thinking should stay dry fcst for
majority of CWA through tomorrow and then the greater precip chances
come in for Saturday night especially when some overrunning ramps up
as a strong classical CAD wedge builds in from the NE. Cannot rule
out some isolated thunder potential for Saturday afternoon in the
far north given some guidance, though feel not enough consensus in
if a 700 mb inversion is capping things.

Temps should be near climo norms tonight and ramp up nicely for a
pleasant Saturday with most locations in the low to mid 70s.
Saturday night will have a rather large gradient with aforementioned
wedge building in from the NE and some pretty high lows for other
areas mainly in central GA with strong southerly advection continued
outside the wedge.


LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
While a weak mid level ridge will be building into the area from the
west...the lower levels will feature a quickly moving strong wedge
down the leeward side of the Appalachian Mountains as we begin the
long term forecast period. As the wedge quickly builds will
push a weak cold front southwards across the CWA. Additional lower
level convergence supplied by the wedge frontal boundary as it
merges with the cold front will allow for enough lift to generate
scattered showers across most of the area...gradually shifting from
north to south thru the day. Looks like enough instability /albeit
weak/ will be available mainly across central Georgia for isolated
chances for thunder.

Monday looks like a raw day across the area as wedge continues to
build in as a 1040+mb parent high centers itself across the
Northeast...essentially setting up Classical CAD conditions. Winds
will be breezy and most locations will be lucky to reach 50 degrees.
In addition...despite continued ridging in the mid and upper
levels...plenty of shortwave energy will traverse atop the ridge to
aid in synoptic scale lift and allowing for a continued chance for
at least isolated to scattered showers and possibly drizzle. Will
need to watch the potential for light sleet/snow showers possibly
transitioning to light freezing rain across northeast mountainous
terrain early Monday as 12z model sounding data suggests saturated
lower level profile amidst temps near freezing.

More divergence exists between ECMWF and GFS going into
Wednesday...but trended more towards the GFS solution as wedge
continues and even tho mid level ridge continues to amplify and shun
shortwave activity further north...saturated lower level profiles
suggest drizzle is likely for most of the day.

Could dry out some briefly on Wednesday as the lower level
ridge/wedge loosens its grip across the region. However...the next
system will be approaching if not moving into the area from the
west. This could make for more widespread...heavier rainfall across
parts of the area thru the rest of the extended. At least temps will
rebound back into the 70s.


00Z Update...
VFR conditions through much of the TAF period. Do think light
showers and MVFR cigs will begin to increase after 03z tomorrow,
so have added VCSH into the TAF. Winds will be shifting to the SE
overnight and then back to the west side tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.



Athens          45  67  45  50 /  20  20  60  40
Atlanta         46  70  56  61 /   5  20  50  50
Blairsville     40  55  48  50 /  40  50  80  40
Cartersville    45  69  55  60 /  20  30  60  50
Columbus        47  77  62  71 /   0   0  30  60
Gainesville     44  62  44  49 /  20  30  70  40
Macon           45  75  61  66 /   0   0  40  60
Rome            45  68  55  62 /  20  30  60  50
Peachtree City  45  73  59  63 /   5  10  50  60
Vidalia         48  75  61  66 /   0   0  30  60




SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Kovacik
AVIATION...NListemaa is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.