486
FXUS62 KFFC 082354
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
754 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of far north Georgia
until 12 AM EDT tonight.

Low-level shear of 20-25 kts is present across portions of middle
Tennessee, near modified outflow from storms earlier today. This
low-level shear along with deep-layer bulk shear of 35-40 kts and
SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg has been sufficient for the
development of discrete supercells at the time of this writing. As
outflow propagates south and east into similarly unstable air in
far north Georgia, it will promote the development of scattered
thunderstorms. It is worth noting that 0-1 km SRH values in this
area will range from 100-150 m2/s2. Thunderstorms that occur this
evening will have the potential to become strong to severe,
capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated
tornadoes.

King

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A nearly stationary frontal boundary currently extends from S New
England SW to near Kansas City. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
extend across NC and TN to MO in a very moist and unstable warm
sector. A few discrete strong to severe storms have also fired
across extreme NE GA and NW SC. Mid-level flow is fairly zonal, with
stronger short waves and/or lows well to the N. However,
disturbances farther S continue to force convection in the juicy
environment.

Models continue to indicate a shortwave dropping SE across N GA late
tonight. Many high resolution models bring thunderstorms S later
tonight into an environment with MUCAPES of 2000 J/kg or higher and
effective shear values of 30-40 knots. This should continue to
support strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind and hail the main
threats. There will also be a risk of isolated tornadoes, mainly
across the extreme N. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat, as storm
motion will likely nearly parallel the orientation of the axis of
storms.

As these storms continue to progress S, some guidance weakens them
late tonight and early Thu. However, this solution is highly
uncertain given the continuing instability and shear across the
area. Even if these storms do weaken, there will likely be a
lingering boundary formed by the cool pool leftover from the storms
that will act as an additional focusing mechanism for storm
redevelopment later in the day on Thu. Instability and shear near
and S of the old outflow boundary will be high. The greatest
uncertainty with this feature will revolve around how stable the air
is N of the old outflow boundary and how that limits convection
initiation farther to the N.

A potent shortwave will move across the S portion of the area late
Thu night and into Fri, supporting more strong to severe
thunderstorms across the S portion of the area. The S boundary of
the cool pool will likely help focus these storms. Due to the slow
advancement of a cold front to the S and the E storm motion along a W-
E aligned line of storms, locally heavy rainfall is definitely
possible.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Highlights:

-Shower and thunderstorm activity continues on Friday mainly for the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area.

-Drier weather briefly returns this weekend before rain makes
another appearance early next week.

Latest hi-res guidance is coming into better agreement with bringing
an MCS originating in East TX across the Southeast states Thursday
night through early Friday morning. With decent instability,
another surge of moisture (PWs surging between 1-2" range) and
plenty of shear another early morning wind threat Friday morning
(start of the long term period) will be possible for areas I-20
southward. As stated in previous forecast discussions, guidance
tends to struggle with exact placement and evolution of MCS
features thus there are a few uncertainties with regards to the
exact path of this overnight/early morning MCS. Additionally, what
occurs Friday morning will impact what occurs for the remainder
of the day -- i.e. redevelopment across the southeast in the
vicinity of the southward moving cold front or lack of development
due to a `worked over` environment. In addition to the severe
threat localized flooding will also be a concern given multiple
rounds of active weather in the short term and the start of the
long term period. Will continue to monitor in later forecast
updates.

Otherwise, a cold front that will be situated across North GA will
continue migrating southward as a shortwave to our north swings
eastward. This will act to gradually bring any shower or
thunderstorm activity to an end by Friday evening. A brief period of
dry and slightly cooler weather is expected this weekend as we
return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances look to return to the
region next week as another low pressure system developing in the
Southern Plains moves eastward.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Conditions are VFR at all TAF sites as the evening begins, with a
cu field between 040-060 expected to persist for the next couple
of hours. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in the early
morning, between 08-10Z. SHRA/TSRA will begin to spread into far
north Georgia late tonight, advancing towards the metro ATL area
during the early morning hours. A PROB30 for TSRA is being carried
from 10-15Z at ATL. Some storms within this line could be strong
to severe, capable of producing gusty winds and hail. Have
maintained higher the wind speeds/gusts in PROB30 along with
reducing visibilities and ceiling heights. Showers will linger
behind the initial push of thunderstorms, with ceilings slow to
improve. Winds will be primarily SW at 5-9 kts through the
evening, increasing to 8-12 kts in the early morning on Thursday
and through the remainder of the day.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  84  64  80 /  40  80  30  40
Atlanta         69  84  65  79 /  40  80  40  40
Blairsville     62  78  57  70 /  80  90  30  30
Cartersville    65  84  61  77 /  60  80  40  30
Columbus        72  88  68  84 /  20  70  50  60
Gainesville     68  82  65  78 /  60  80  30  30
Macon           70  86  67  82 /  10  70  40  60
Rome            67  85  62  77 /  70  80  40  20
Peachtree City  68  84  63  80 /  30  80  50  40
Vidalia         70  91  71  85 /   0  60  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...King