Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 202010
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
310 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The primary forecast challenges through Saturday are precipitation
and temperatures. As an upper low moves across the central/southern
Plains, rain chances will remain high for much of western Nebraska.
Dropping temperatures will allow some of the rain to mix with or
switch to snow.

This evening and tonight... Spread lkly/def PoP east to all areas
but far north central Neb. The heart of the H5/7 fgen cuts across
the Sandhills as consistent isentropic upglide at 290K and southeast
sfc flow provide low level lift and moisture advection. Hi-res
solutions including RAP, HRRR, and HREF suggest at least scattered
coverage through the overnight hours. Lows will be rather tricky
with temps falling into the mid/upper 30s with a few spots
approaching the freezing mark in the panhandle. Little temp
advection occurs at H85 and thick cloud cover will limit rapid or
extreme drops, but areas of enhanced precip rates may result in an
earlier switch to snow or prolonged snow. Forecast soundings
indicate the thermal profile to be on the fence for rain/snow as ice
initiation occurs in the cloud layer, but much of the lift and
moisture are located well below the DGZ, aside from sfc temps or wet
bulb at/above 0C. Confidence for snow remains highest for areas west
of Hwy 61, where up to 1 inch is possible overnight.

Saturday... Precip chances continue through the day with weak
isentropic upglide and easterly/upslope flow, although coverage and
intensity decrease in the afternoon as mid level forcing weakens.
Little additional snowfall is expected after 12z, limiting potential
impacts to travel. Overall QPF should be fairly light after 18z as
just scattered showers remain. Temperature-wise, again little to no
advection takes place at H85, while stratus will keep things cool.
Made little change to previous forecast as highs trend toward the
cooler MET guidance, staying around 50F (10 to 15 degrees below



.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

System progressing as forecast this morning. Convection moving out
of northeast Colorado into the southern Nebraska Panhandle.
Precipitation continues over western Nebraska on Saturday and ending
Saturday evening as upper support shifts east. Highs in the 50s
south and 60s north as cloud cover lingers over the south. Ridge
rebounds over the northern Rockies as upper low moves across central
Canada and trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Warming into
the mid 60s Monday. A Pacific cool front will move across western
Nebraska late Monday early Tuesday with the rain chances increasing.
Could see a few flakes of snow through the early morning but
temperatures holding in the mid 30s for lows and most of that
reached around sunrise on Tuesday. Another clipper rolls into the
northern plains Wednesday evening. This could kick off a few showers
but with the gulf blocked isolated at best. Ridge increases over the
west as closed upper system slams into northern California. Highs in
the 50s and 60s Thursday and in the 60s on Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Rain showers will overspread western and north central Nebraska
this afternoon and evening as gusty southeast winds continue. In
response, cigs will lower into MVFR this evening and locally IFR
overnight (primarily southwest Neb). The rain may mix with or
fully transition to snow in the panhandle and parts of southwest
Nebraska early Saturday morning, which may further drop visbys.
Light accumulations (generally under 1 inch) are possible at IML
and OGA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Snively



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