Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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484
FXUS64 KMEG 240442
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1142 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

.UPDATE...

Updated to increase pops this evening across eastern parts of the
Mid South.

.DISCUSSION...

Slow moving upper level low will continue to spread light rain
showers across the area, especially across eastern sections. Pops
have been increased this evening in these locations. Temperatures
will remain seasonably cool overnight with low clouds and some
localized fog possible. Updated forecast has been sent.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

Cool and occasionally wet weather to prevail through Friday, but
with little if any hazards. Warmer and dry weather will arrive in
time for this weekend.

A slow moving cut-off upper low was centered over the Midsouth
this afternoon. This upper low will move to northern middle TN /
south central KY by midmorning Tuesday. Rainfall coverage should
contract slightly with loss of surface heating this evening, as
the main rain shield lifts east. Some westward expansion of
showers is expected with surface heating on Tuesday, with light
rain amounts mainly near the TN River.

The upper will lift out to the Carolinas Tuesday night, with the
approach of an upstream low dropping from the plains into the
lower MS River valley. This feature will bring scattered showers
to the Midsouth Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning,
before being pushed out by a progressive upstream trof embedded
in northwest flow. An associated surface cold frontal passage and
scattered showers are forecast for Friday.

Friday will mark the end of the Monday-Wednesday-Friday rain
periods that will likely characterize this week. An upper level
ridge over the Rockies on Friday will move into the MS River
valley by late Saturday, bringing dry conditions and mild daytime
temps to the Midsouth. This ridge will set up over the southeast
U.S. early next week, bringing above normal temps and predominately
dry weather. At that time, better focus for active weather will
shift to the plains, where low level instability axis will build
ahead of longwave western U.S. trof.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Set

Varied current cigs still expected to drop to IFR/LIFR overnight
with slow improvements back to VFR by evening Tuesday. A few
showers in VC at MEM...MKL and TUP. Light winds increase to 9-11
kts from the northwest...then diminish to 5kts again near sunset.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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