Text Products for ESF Issued by BOX

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FGUS71 KBOX 111401
ESFBOX
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-
027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-181415-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1001 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

The combination of recent wet weather and above normal temperatures
led to high river flows and high soil moisture in southern New
England.  Despite the lack of snowpack, a continuation of this pattern
for at least the next two weeks leads to the above normal potential
for river and stream flooding.

For a graphical depiction of this outlook, go to:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

This outlook is based on current and forecast conditions including
temperatures, precipitation, snow cover, snow water content, river
flows, soil moisture, and ice coverage.

...RECENT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION...

March featured above normal temperatures and precipitation. Temperatures
averaged 3 to 7 degrees above normal. Precipitation was 2 to 7 inches
above normal, with the greatest departures in eastern
Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts where
monthly totals were more than 200 percent above normal.

So far in April, temperatures were averaging near normal and
precipitation was on the order of 0.5 to 1.5 inches above normal.


...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER CONTENT...

There was no snow cover left in southern New England with the
exception of deep wooded areas of the northern Berkshires into western
Franklin County where some patchy light snow cover remains, but the water
content of the snow was under one inch.


...SOIL MOISTURE, RIVER FLOWS, AND GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...

Soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater are all well above normal
across southern New England. The only exception is for groundwater on
Nantucket where wells were reporting below normal levels. Several wells
in Massachusetts and Rhode Island were reporting record high levels for
early April.


...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

Through the end of April, odds favor above average temperatures
with less of a signal for either near or slightly above average
precipitation.


...SUMMARY...

The combination of recent wet weather and above normal temperatures
has led to high river flows and soil moisture. Despite the lack of
snowpack, a continuation of this pattern for at least the next two
weeks leads to the above normal potential for river and stream
flooding.

In the shorter term, heavy rainfall later today through early
Friday could result in flooding on the Pawtuxet and Wood Rivers in
Rhode Island.

As a reminder, flooding rain can occur any time during the year,
even when the flood outlook is below normal. The Graphical
Hazardous Weather Outlook can provide a heads-up for excessive
rainfall over the next five days:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

This will be the final Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for the
season,

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
