Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
922 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas...

The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the
Sabine River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.
This service is also available on the Internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days.  Example:  The South Fork of the Sabine River
near Quinlan has a flood stage of 15 feet. There is a 50 percent
chance the Quinlan forecast point will rise above 17.5 feet
during the next 90 days.

        Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
            Valid 04/18/2018 - 07/17/2018

Location     FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
South Fork Sabine River
 Quinlan       15.0 14.2 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3
Cowleech Fork Sabine River
 Greenville    14.0 10.8 15.7 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2

Location        90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
--------        ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at:  water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fwd

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

North Sulphur River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

South Sulphur River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Cowleech Fork Sabine River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

South Fork Sabine River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Big Sandy Creek
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

West Fork Trinity River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Clear Fork Trinity River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Elm Fork Trinity River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

East Fork Trinity River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Clear Creek
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Denton Creek
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Sister Grove Creek
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Chambers Creek
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Trinity River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Big Sandy Creek
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Brazos River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Paluxy River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Nolan River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

North Bosque River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Hog Creek
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Middle Bosque River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Brazos River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Leon River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Sabana River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Cowhouse Creek
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Lampasas River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Little River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Navasota River
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Headwater Forecasts
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1

Trinity Reservoirs
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1
Lk Tawakoni    437.7 437.7 437.8 438.1 438.3 438.7 439.0 439.5 440.1




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