Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER SACRAMENTO CA
National Weather Service Sacrmento, CA
1045 AM PST THU MAR 8 2018

LOW SPRING FLOOD THREAT ACROSS CALIFORNIA

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE CALIFORNIA
NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTERS DOMAIN IS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK.

FLOODING IN CALIFORNIA REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE
SEASONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONE, OR RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT ANYTIME DURING THE SPRING.

CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS

SNOWPACK
EVERYWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH BASIN
DOWN TO THE TULARE BASIN IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IS
EXPERIENCING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE SNOWPACK.  EARLY MARCH STORMS HAVE
BROUGHT SOME RELIEF, BUT SNOWPACK REMAINS BELOW 50% OF AVERAGE OVER
CALIFORNIA.

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FOR THE CURRENT WATER
YEAR ARE MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE CNRFC DOMAIN.

SEASONAL (APRIL-JULY) RUNOFF FORECASTS
THE SEASONAL RUNOFF FORECASTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE SNOWPACK
CONDITIONS.  BELOW NORMAL RUNOFF VOLUMES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE APRIL-JULY PERIOD.

FLOOD EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
FLOODING POTENTIAL DURING THE SPRING SNOWMELT SEASON IS BELOW NORMAL
THIS SEASON DUE TO THE BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SPRINGTIME RAINFALL EVENTS
RESULTING IN RIVER FLOODING IS STILL PRESENT AND SHOULD BE MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE SPRING. CONSULT THE AHPS LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK MAP
FOR THE LATEST POINT EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP.

SUMMARY
RISK OF CALIFORNIA FLOODING DURING THE SNOWMELT SEASON IS
BELOW NORMAL THIS YEAR FOR THE CASCADES AND THE SIERRA NEVADA.
NEVERTHELESS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING REMAINS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT AT ANY TIME DURING THE SPRING.

REFER TO THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR FLOOD EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITIES AT PARTICULAR LOCATIONS FOR THE MARCH THROUGH MAY
PERIOD.  FOR SHORT TERM HYDROLOGIC FORECASTS AND GENERAL WATER
RESOURCE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE CNRFC HOMEPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV.


CNRFC/PF
STO/CM



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