Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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008
FNUS73 KEAX 221738
FWSEAX

Spot Forecast for Helton CA Prescribed Fire...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1238 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-438-0596, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Being on the north side of the exiting upper low tomorrow morning,
winds will remain out of the north and northeast through the day.
In response, dryer air will advect in from the northeast, resulting
in minimum relative humidity values in the mid 30s. Winds will
relax through the evening, but remain out of the north.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 69.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 6 to 8
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1000-1800
                    ft AGL increasing to 5400-6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  44  44  45  45  44  44  44  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  57  60  63  65  67  68  69  69
RH..............56  50  45  41  38  36  36  35  35
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.            10  11  11  11  10  8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.8 3.0 4.2 5.4 6.3 6.8 6.9 6.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.18  20  20  20  18  17  16  15  14
Haines index....6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......4500-5700 ft AGL decreasing to 0-200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........48  49  43  33  27  31  37  41  38  31  28  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............68  66  63  60  57  55  53  52  51  50  49  48
RH..............36  38  42  47  53  57  61  64  66  66  68  71
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.7
Mix hgt (kft)...5.7 4.5 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   NE  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  16  15  13  10  8   7   7   7   9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1800 ft AGL increasing to 7500-8700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 OR or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  36  32  24  21  26  38  44  47  53  55  61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............47  48  52  57  61  64  66  67  69  70  70  69
RH..............76  77  69  59  53  47  44  43  39  38  36  37
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.                                    7   8   10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.1 5.2 6.2 7.5 8.4 8.7 7.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  13  14  15  15  14  13  12  10  9   9   9
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Kurtz
Requested by...jesse kamps
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807352.0/EAX
.DELDT 04/22/18
.EMAIL jesse.kamps@mdc.mo.gov



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