Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FNUS73 KOAX 251611
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Tieville...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1111 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

An upper-level storm system will track from south-central Nebraska
into central Kansas today with light rain showers ending from
north to south across the region. High temperatures will be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s this afternoon with the lowest relative
humidity values of 30 to 35 percent. Another weather disturbance
will move through the mid Missouri Valley on Thursday along with a
surface cold front. Northwest winds will strengthen to 15 to 25
mph behind the front with high to very high fire danger developing
by afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......5000-6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (31300 knot-ft).
GFDI (max)..........Moderate.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........14     3      1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............56     60     62
RH..............45     36     33
20 ft wind......N 6    N 6    NW 6
20 ft wind gust.10
Mix hgt (ft)....5000   5900   6300
Transport wind..N 10   N 8    N 6
GFDI............3      3      3
Haines index....5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100044     39     31

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening, becoming light and variable, then
                    becoming southwest around 5 mph late.
Mixing height.......5500-6100 ft AGL, decreasing to 0-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-27800 knot-ft).
GFDI (max)..........Low.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........2      2      2      14     19     17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............63     58     52     47     44     41
RH..............32     37     48     58     65     76
20 ft wind......NW 5   W 4    SW 4   SW 4   SW 4   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.       5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....6100   3800   300    BLW100 300    300
Transport wind..NW 5   NW 5   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   SW 10
GFDI............2      2      1      1      1      1
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100028     15     1      0      2      2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent), then becoming
                    partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph, becoming north 12
                    to 17 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1500 ft AGL, increasing to 7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph, increasing to north 21 to 30
                    mph late in the morning, then increasing to
                    around 31 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-32400 knot-ft), increasing to
                    excellent (184400 knot-ft).
GFDI (max)..........Moderate, increasing to Very High.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........27     39     55     68     66     47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............39     46     55     57     61     63
RH..............82     68     53     51     41     34
20 ft wind......S 6    SW 7   NW 10  NW 15  N 17   N 17
20 ft wind gust.       10     15     25     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....100    800    2200   3300   4900   6500
Transport wind..S 10   SW 13  W 17   N 25   N 31   N 31
GFDI............1      2      5      11     19     20
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      5
SDspl kt-ft/10000      8      32     75     129    174

$$
Forecaster...Fobert
Requested by...Nathan Jones
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807825.0/OAX



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