Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 261228
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Valid 00Z Sun May 27 2018 - 00Z Sun Jun 03 2018

Model guidance remains fairly locked into the large scale
evolution of flow next week, which should feature the weakening of
subtropical ridging initially settled over the Islands this
weekend and a compact low closing off just northwest of Kauai
Monday/Tuesday.  The compact low should then slowly drift westward
away from the Islands, but a surge of tropically infused
precipitable water values east of the low should align over the
state during the middle of next week.  Deterministic and ensemble
guidance have come into much better agreement with the timing of
the westward progression of the closed low, and are even
reasonably well clustered with lifting the feature northeastward
towards a shortwave crossing the northern Pacific late next week.
.


Gerhardt


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