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000
FXAK69 PAFG 182346
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 PM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building into Interior Alaska will bring
clearing skies for much of the Interior Monday. There will still
be a slight chance of thunderstorms east of Fairbanks Monday. A
low in the Bering Sea will send a weather front to the coast
Monday spreading clouds and showers up the coast land into the
Western Interior. Cloudy in the Arctic with showers and patchy
fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...18/12Z solutions are in good agreement with some minor
timing differences, and strength differences. Features in the
surface solutions initialized about 2 mb weaker than the local
analysis did so winds in the solutions are 3 to 5 knots too light
out west, so will kick them up a couple knots in the grids to
compensate. Convective indicies not real impressive, but enough
instability to expect some very isolated thunderstorm activity
east of Fairbanks Monday. Indicies are better Tuesday in the area
north and east of Tanana but will wait another model run to see if
that holds. Using a general blend of the solutions for the short
term through the extended periods, but will lean a bit on the
Ensemble mean late in the forecast.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over most of the state with a 577
dam high over Galena, and a 576 dam high over the Copper River
Basin, and a 581 dam high over Togiak. A weak trough lies from
the Fortymile Country southwest to the Matanuska Valley this
evening. Zonal flow across the Arctic with a 525 dam low 400 nm
northwest of Wrangel Island. A ridge axis extends northwest over
the Chukotsk Peninsula, and a 533 dam low has moves to the
Dateline near 58N. By Monday afternoon a cutoff 577 dam high will
be over Eagle with a weak trough between 558 dam low southeast of
the Gulf of Alaska, and the low in the Bering Sea that will be
just south of the Gulf Of Anadyr over the Dateline. The low in the
Arctic will move east to 500 nm north of Point Lay as it rides
northeast over the top of the ridge. Tuesday afternoon troughing
over the Arctic will be north of 75N, with the low in the Bering
Sea will move to the Bering Strait at 547 dam, and ridging will
continue to hold over the Central and Eastern Interior as the high
moves over the Northwest Territories with a col over the
southeast mainland. At 850 hpa...Temperatures warming to near or
above +10C by Monday afternoon.

Surface...A weather front is moving across the Arctic as a 1003 mb
low in the Siberian Arctic moves to the Dateline near 75N. The
front will move to the Beaufort Sea by Monday afternoon and weak
high pressure will move over the Arctic Coast and nearshore
waters. High pressure from the Bering Strait south will move over
mainland Alaska and into the Interior tonight as a 1000 mb low in
the Bering Sea moves to the Dateline near 60N. High pressure will
hold over the Central and Eastern Interior as the low in the
Bering Sea swings a weather front up the coast Monday night and
Tuesday spreading showers west of Fairbanks and across the Arctic.
The pressure gradient across the Alaska Range will tighten up a
bit Tuesday with gusty south winds developing near the Alaska
Range Passes.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, showers, areas of fog.
Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph diminishing Monday afternoon to 5 to
15 mph and turning from the northeast. Temperatures along the
coast in the upper 30s to upper 40s from Utqiagvik west, with
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 60s to the east. Inland
high temperatures 70s in the plains and 60s in the Brooks Range,
with lows in the 50s in the plains and 40s in the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy with isolated showers
tonight into Monday afternoon, then increased showers spreading
north up the coast and inland Monday afternoon and evening.
Rainfall Monday night through Tuesday will range from 0.50 to 1.50
inches with the heaviest rain along the south slopes of the
Western Brooks Range, and in the Nulato Hills. St Lawrence Island
will remain mostly cloudy with showers. Smoke from the fires in
Siberia continues to linger over most of the area and may impact
visibility at times. High temperatures along the coast around 50
to the mid 60s Monday, then mid 40s to around 60 on Tuesday.
Inland high temperatures in the 70s Monday, and 60s Tuesday. Lows
will be in the mid 40s to around 60 Monday and Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated thunderstorms and showers
in the southeast Interior this evening, then clearing across the
area tonight. Winds west gusting to 15 mph becoming light and
variable this evening. Variable winds to 10 mph Monday.
Temperatures warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Generally warm and dry from
Fairbanks east with some afternoon thunderstorms and showers
possible, with cool and wet to the west. The Arctic will be
similar with cool and wet to the west of Deadhorse, and generally
dry from Deadhorse east.

&&

.Fire Weather...Some isolated thunderstorms and showers in the
southeast Interior, otherwise clearing skies. Rain moving into
areas from Tanana west Monday and Tuesday with increasing chance
of wetting rain. Warm ad dry east of Tanana with near Red Flag
conditions Monday and Tuesday. Winds generally light and variable
tonight with increasing southeast to south winds west of Tanana,
and near passes in the Alaska Range Monday and Tuesday. Winds west
of Tanana 5 to 15 mph, while near the passes winds gusting around
30 mph Monday, and 40 mph Tuesday. Minimum Relative Humidity
values Monday range from around 30 along the AlCan Border and in
the Upper Yukon Flats to the mid 40s in the Middle Yukon Valley.
Drier conditions Tuesday with values falling into the mid 20s
along the AlCan and in the Upper Yukon Flats, to the upper 40s in
the Middle Yukon Valley. Overnight Relative Humidity recovery
will be fair to good.

&&

.Hydrology...No issues at this time. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 21