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000
FXAK69 PAFG 141448
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
648 AM AKDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Westerly flow pattern that has brought and Arctic airmass
across Northern Alaska will turn southwest on Mon and southerly on
Tue. This will bring stormy conditions to St Lawrence Is, the
Bering Strait, NW Alaska and the Western North Slope late today
into Mon night or Tue, with stormy conditions spreading into much
of the remainder of the West Coast Mon into Tue. There will be
snow, blowing snow and strong south winds. Expect southerly gales
and possible blizzard conditions. Expect 4-8 inches of snow at
Kivalina, Point Hope and Red Dog along with near blizzard
conditions tonight through Mon night. Expect 4-6 inches of snow
Mon into Tue on the southern Seward Pen from Golovin west. Expect
2-4 inches of snow and near blizzard conditions over the Yk Delta
Mon into Tue as well.

Temperatures will remain much colder than normal today, then warm
above normal along the West Coast on Mon, and Warm to near normal
over the Interior and North Slope on Mon, then all areas will
warm above normal from Tue through next weekend.


Aloft...
A deep 4800 meter low 500 NM north of Utqiagvik will drift slowly
north as a strong ridge over the North Pacific builds north over
SW Alaska today, over Mainland AK on Mon, then over Eastern AK and
NW Canada on Tue. A long wave trough over eastern Russia will
drop over the Western Bering Sea on Mon, and then deepen on Tue.

Surface...
A 986 mb low 500 NM north of Utqiagvik will move slowly north.
An Arctic front stretching from this low to Inuvik to Old Crow to
the Bering Strait. This will bring storm conditions to NW AK today
and Monday.

A 1008 mb west of Anadyr will move to 100 NM northwest of Point
Hope as a 1000 mb low by 4am Mon, then to 500 NM north of Barter
Island as a a 1004 mb low by 4am Tue. This will bring storm conditions
to NW AK today and Monday.

A low developing in the southern Bering Sea today will move to
100 NM west of the Yukon Delta by 4pm Mon, and to near Shishmaref
as a 999 mb low by 4am Tue. This will bring stormy conditions and
gale force winds to SW AK on Mon PM that will spread north along
the Coast Monday night and Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft on most features, but the NAM/GFS and
Canadian all initialize 20-30 meters too deep at 500 mb on the low
near Shemya, while the ECMWF initializes just 10-20 meters too
deep with this feature. This becomes important later today as the
GFS/NAM and Canadian models deepen this feature much more than the
ECMWF does. There is a trailing stronger short wave southwest of
this feature that will eventually transfer some of its energy into
the previously mentioned low, but not until tonight and even then
will not add all of it energy. Given these facts will opt for the
weaker short short wave solution shown by the ECMWF and will use
the ECMWF for features aloft.

With precipitation, favor the ECMWF solutions since it is the
favored solutions aloft. Highlights include:
Light snow east of Fairbanks and Arctic Village diminishing from
the west this morning. Light snow over the Seward Pen moving north
over NW AK today, over NW AK and the Western North Slope tonight,
then persisting into Mon. Another area of snow spreading north
over the Northern Bering Sea on Mon and into the West Coast of
Alaska Mon night and Tue. Expect 4-8 inches of snow Sun night into
Tue near Kivalina- Point Hope and Red Dog, and 4-6 inches Mon into
Tue on the southern Seward Pen from Golovin west.

At 06Z, models verify well at the surface on most features. Models
show similar solutions today, then the ECMWF/NAM and Canadian
models are faster tonight moving a low from the Chukotsk Peninsula
northeast across the Chukchi Sea. Starting Mon, the ECMWF is
weaker but also faster in moving the low in the SE Bering Sea
north along the West Coast. As previously stated the ECMWF is
favored in this feature aloft, and thus the ECMWF is favored with
this feature at the surface for Mon and Tue. Will use a blend of
the ECMWF/NAM and Canadian for surface features and winds through
tonight, then mainly the ECMWF for Mon into Tue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Sea levels 2-3 feet above
normal along the West Coast Mon into Tue. Could cause water to
push on top of the ice near shore.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801-814.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ826.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-816-817-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
&&

$$

JB