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000
FXAK69 PAFG 172255
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Some increased clouds with isolated thunderstorms and
showers as a front moves across the Interior tonight, then
decreasing clouds on Monday with slightly cooler temperatures.
Showers ending for most of the West Coast this evening with some
clearing inland. Along the coast onshore flow will keep the
coastal locations cloudy with patchy fog. The Arctic will remain
cloudy with showers and areas of fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...17/12Z solutions are in good agreement. Of course there
is some timing differences in the movement of the shortwaves, but
overall not too significant. Good agreement on the ridging
building back in over the area behind the shortwave, and a short
cooling period before it warms back up by late Monday. Primary
features in the surface solutions initialized a bit weaker than
they did in the local analysis with so winds in the solutions are
3 to 5 knots too light on the Northwest Arctic Coast, so will kick
them up a little tonight. Primarily used a general blend of the
solutions for the short term. Did increase the precipitation
probabilities across the interior to slight chance as the front
moves across tonight into Sunday morning.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the state is flattening out as
a shortwave associated with a 522 dam low near the New Siberian
Island moves east. The trough lies from Wainwright to McGrath this
afternoon and will be near 140W and the AlCan Border Sunday
before noon. Ridging will build north behind the shortwave over
the West Coast and Chukchi Sea rotating over the Central Interior
by Sunday evening. A weaker shortwave will move northeast over the
northwest mainland Sunday during the day. A 555 dam low near
Shemya will move northeast near the Dateline by Sunday afternoon,
then north over the Dateline to 60N by Monday afternoon at 549
dam. By Monday afternoon a 578 dam high will be over Circle. At
850 hpa...Temperatures cool a few degrees tonight and Sunday, then
return to near or above +10C by Monday afternoon.

Surface...A weather front is moving across the northern half of
the state today and will move east across the Central and Eastern
Arctic, and Interior tonight. High pressure building in over the
southwest mainland will push in behind the front with a 1023 mb
high moving near McGrath by Sunday afternoon, and a 1021 mb high
moving near Fairbanks. A front associated with a low in the
Siberian Arctic will move northeast across the Chukchi Sea as the
low moves to the Dateline near 75N by Monday morning as low
pressure persists across the Arctic. A 1005 mb low near Shemya
will move into the Central Bering Sea by Monday morning, then
sends a weather front up the West Coast as the low moves to St
Matthew Island by Monday night. The low will move into the
northwest mainland near Noatak by Tuesday afternoon at 1000 mb as
low pressure pushes east across the state.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, chance of showers,
south to west winds 10 to 20 mph. Some clearing inland.
Temperatures along the coast in the upper 30s to mid 50s, while
inland temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 70s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers tapering off this
evening with some lingering showers near the Western Brooks Range
tonight. Clearing overnight except along the coast where the
stratus will persist with onshore flow. Another system moving to
the coast Monday morning will spread another round of showers to
the area. St Lawrence Island will remain mostly cloudy with
showers. Smoke from the fires in Siberia continues to linger over
most of the area and may impact visibility at times. Temperatures
along the coast in the 40s and 50s, while inland high temperatures
will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. South to west winds will
prevail at 5 to 20 mph with winds inland diminishing to 5 to 10
mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increased clouds this evening with
some isolated thunderstorms and showers. Clearing Sunday. Winds
west gusting to 20 mph becoming light and variable overnight, then
west to 10 mph Sunday. Temperatures a bit cooler than the last
few days with highs in the 70s Sunday, after lows in the 50s
tonight. Warmer Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Generally warm and dry east of
Tanana, with cool and wet from Tanana west through Wednesday. A
weather front will move northeast across the area Wednesday night
and Thursday with some clearing on Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...Showers on the West Coast will be tapering off
with just some lingering showers in the Western Brooks Range. As
the front moves across the state isolated thunderstorms and
showers are expected from Fairbanks east this afternoon and
evening. Clearing over most of the forecast area Sunday and Monday
with some Isolated thunderstorms and showers along the AlCan
Border. Winds southwest to west at 5 to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph
locally. Minimum Relative Humidity values range from the 30s in
the Upper Yukon Flats to the 50s in the Middle Yukon Valley, with
40s in the Upper Tanana Valley. Drier conditions Monday with
values falling into the 30s and 40s for most areas east of Tanana.
Overnight Relative Humidity recovery will be fair to good.

&&

.Hydrology...No issues at this time. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 21