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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
000 FXAK69 PAFG 161013 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 213 AM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Summer weather pattern has quickly returned as a strong upper level high moves over the Mainland, bringing back warm temps above average. The pattern will change little over the next few days, although it will get a little breezier in the afternoon periods across the Interior. Threats for isolated thunderstorms will remain mainly over the higher terrain. Light rain will move up along the West Coast Friday night and Saturday, crossing the North Slope Saturday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... A dominant upper level ridge continues to remain a permanent fixture across the Mainland. The center is now around Southwest Alaska with a 500 hpa height of approximately 578 dam, which is rather high even for this time of year. North flow aloft persists along the eastern periphery of the ridge axis across the Eastern Interior, with a strong warm front aloft pushing northeast across the Arctic/North Slope. Troughing aloft is over Siberia with another shortwave trough over the North Bering Sea. Central and Eastern Interior... Warm again today as upper ridging aloft builds in. Higher clouds this morning will give way to mostly clearing skies except some thinner high cirrus. Expect southwest winds to become breezy in the afternoon with many 80 degree readings expected in lower valleys. A few afternoon isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Fortymile and Eastern AK Range, and maybe a few showers over the White Mountains. A "cool front" will move east on Saturday late afternoon bringing a slight and brief "cool down" Sunday, although still quite warm from Fairbanks eastward with some low to mid 80s. Will also be a bit breezier Saturday as this front shifts east toward the ALCAN. Overall, pretty nice summer weather unless you do not like warm weather. West Coast and Western Interior... Southwest onshore flow will keep fog and stratus over the Norton Sound and Yukon Delta coast today, otherwise, another nice summer day for the Interior. Clouds increase late with a front bringing light rain and blustery southwest winds to the NW Arctic, Seward Peninsula, and Western Brooks Range through Saturday. Some showers will also clip the Yukon Valley as the front moves east. Ridging builds back in for the Interior on Sunday with lingering light rain chances along the NW Arctic Coast. North Slope and Brooks Range... A warm front will shift east today bringing warm temps into the 60s all the way to Prudhoe Bay area along with breezy southwest winds over the western half of the Arctic. Expect showers/light rain beginning tonight as a cool front shifts east through Saturday, also sparking off thunderstorms over the eastern Brooks Range and possibly onto the eastern Arctic Coast late Saturday. The upper level flow will remain strong so expect continued breezy southwest winds and warmer temps to persist through Monday. This will also limit fog and stratus after this morning. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Beginning the extended period forecast on Monday, there will be an expansive ridge aloft over the Mainland with a trough over the Bering Sea and another deeper upper level low center over the Chukchi Sea. Monday looks hot over the Interior with temps soaring into the 80s over the Central/Eastern Interior. The numerical global models continue to slow down the eastward progression of the Bering trough inland, which is not a surprise given the very strong ridging over the Mainland. The ECMWF has led the way with this pattern, while the American FV3-GFS model has been the absolute worst. The new 00z ECMWF model now actually slows it down even further and splits the trough into the Gulf of Alaska by midweek, keeping the best rain and cooler weather out west. The GFS is slowly catching on to this idea, but we will continue to favor the warmer and drier ECMWF for the Eastern Interior, with wetter and cooler out west and across the Central Interior, by Tuesday. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Ridging aloft will remain dominant over the Mainland today before a cool front tracks east across the Interior Saturday and Sunday. Temps will push into the 80s today over the Eastern Interior, but breezy southwest winds will also bring in more moist air, so min RH values most likely will remain above 30 percent. There will be slight chances for thunderstorms the next few days over the Fortymile and Eastern AK Range, as well as over the Brooks Range. Otherwise, it will be quite stable to thunderstorms elsewhere. Sunday cools back down before more warming Monday. Beyond warm temps and breezy southwest winds today and Saturday, there is no concern for critical fire weather conditions. By Tuesday, cooling and wetter weather moves into the Western and Central Interior as a trough shifts inland. However, it still looks to stay on the drier and warmer side over the Eastern Interior as the upper trough splits and induces south flow aloft. && .HYDROLOGY... No concerns. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235. && $$ AHSENMACHER JUL 21
