Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190103 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 903 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure and associated warm front tracks north of the area tonight. Gusty west winds will accompany a cold front that will move across the region Thursday morning. Dry weather with below normal temperatures will prevail Friday through this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday... Current analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered over southern WV, with a warm front extending E to SE from and bisecting the CWA making for a sharp temperature difference this evening. The sfc low will lift ENE later tonight with the front gradually lifting farther N and placing all zones except possibly the eastern shore into the warm sector. Initially though, temperatures have fallen into the 40s across most of the eastern shore and to near 50 F at Va Beach (while averaging in the 60s to around 70 F well inland over VA/NC). Have adjusted hourly grids accordingly, then expect temperatures to rise a bit along the coast and eastern shore after midnight while slowly falling well inland. Skies will be clear this evening, gradually turning partly cloudy well after midnight as the trailing sfc cold front approaches from the west. Lows will range from the mid/upper 40s eastern shore (prior to 06Z) to the upper 50s/around 60 F over south central VA and interior NE NC. Keeping a dry forecast through 12Z, perhaps a sprinkle makes it to the NW Piedmont from 09-12Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... Potent s/w aloft tracks by just N of the FA Thu morning...w/ a cold front pushing quickly E through the local area. Expected development of gusty W winds (to 30-40 mph) Thu along w/ a substantial push of dry air (midday-afternoon) into the region. Narrow band of moisture ahead of/along the cold front shifts to the coastal plain by late Thu morning then offshore thereafter. Best uvm for pcpn will remain N of the local area...though cannot rule out an ISOLD SHRA just about anywhere (mainly in the morning). Otherwise...partly- mostly sunny Thu w/ highs from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore and over the NW piedmont to the u60s- l70s in central VA to SE VA- NE NC. Dry/cool wx Thu night-Fri as lo pres is slow to exit New England and hi pres only gradually builds into the local area from the NW. Still hanging on to a gusty NW wind Thu night into Fri...lastly waning at the coast (Fri afternoon). Winds hanging up Thu night along w/ dry atmosphere (most dew points down in the 20s (around 30F at the coast)...frost should not be a problem. Would not rule out...however...temperatures possibly falling to freezing late at night over a few areas well NW of RIC. Lows Thu night from the l-m30s inland to around 40F SE. Mostly sunny Fri w/ highs mainly 55-60F. Dry/cool wx continues Fri night-Sat as sfc hi pres arrives from the NW. Winds to decouple/become light most places Thu night resulting in another night w/ lows 30-35F inland (possible freeze...esp over the Piedmont) to around 40F (right) at the coast in ern/SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Sat w/ N winds aob 10 mph and highs from the m-u50s E to the l60s along-W of I 95.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 420 PM EDT Wednesday... Below average temperatures expected through the bulk of the extended period as surface high pressure slowly moves from the wrn Great Lakes to New England from Sunday through Tuesday. At the same time, a low pressure system slowly tracks from the srn Plains to the southeastern US. Rain chances return early next week as that same area of low pressure tracks northeastward up the Atlantic coast. Some track/timing differences exist between the 18/12z suite of guidance. GFS brings in the rain late in the day on Monday while the ECMWF holds it off until Tuesday PM and has much less QPF than the GFS. CMC keeps all of the precipitation south of the CWA. Given the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% for the bulk of the CWA from Tue- Wed. Highs in the mid-upper 60s Sun-Wed from Central VA to NE NC. Slightly cooler on the Ern Shore with low 60s Sun-Tue warming to mid 60s by Wednesday. Lows mainly in the 40s throughout the CWA on Mon/Tue rising to around 50 Wed AM with the clouds/possible rain. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 700 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions with mostly SKC. Winds are generally from the SE-S at 5 to 10 kt with some gusts to 20 kts along the coast. Guidance continues to show LLWS for all TAF sites during the overnight hours as a warm front transits the region. A cold front will then move through the area during the day on Thursday and bring mid level cloud ceilings and gusty W-NW winds. Expect sustained winds of ~20 kt with gusts up to 30-35 kt Thu from late morning through the afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions continue through Sat. Winds will diminish and shift to the NW by Thu eve. VFR/dry with ~10 kt winds from the NW on Fri, shifting to the N to NE on Sat. && .MARINE... As of 420 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will slide off the SE coast this evening, while a cold front will approach fm the west. That cold front will move acrs the region then off the coast Thu morning into Thu aftn. This will allow the pressure gradient to increase over the waters, with SSE winds increasing up to ~15 kt this evening. Winds will further increase overnight while becoming SW, to 15-20 kt with a SCA in effect over the Ches Bay. Behind the cold front, west winds of 15-25 kt (gusts up to 30 kt possible) are expected over the entire waters, esply late Thu morning thru late Thu aftn. NW winds 15-25 kt (with gusts up to 30 kt) will then prevail Thu evening thru Fri morning, as high pressure starts to build in fm the NNW. SCA conditions all waters fm late Thu morning/midday into Fri morning. Waves will build to 2-4 ft and seas will build to 4-6 ft. Marine conditions will calm down Fri aftn thru Sat, as high pressure builds into and over the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... Fine fuels have dried out a bit more this afternoon...down to 7-10%. With little to no rain in the forecast over the next 24 hrs and with the frontal passage Thu morning, pattern looks favorable given the time of year, and the typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as the downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures for increased fire concerns (Thu afternoon/early eve). After coordination w/ the VA fire service have decided to replace the Fire Wx Watch w/ an Increased Fire Danger statement (SPS) for Thu over central and eastern VA as W winds become gusty to 25-35 mph and most RH values fall to 25-30% (in the afternoon/early eve). Have re-issued the SPS for Increased Fire Danger for all of NE NC except the NC Outer Banks...and for the VA ern shore and VA Beach. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday... River flood warning for Meherrin River at Lawrenceville has been cancelled as it fell below flood stage Tues evening. River flood warning has also ended at Bremo Bluff. The warnings remain in effect for the James River at Westham and Richmond Locks. See FLSAKQ for details.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/JEF MARINE...TMG FIRE WEATHER...AKQ HYDROLOGY...AKQ

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