Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221915 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 315 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight. Low pressure will track from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1030 mb high pressure centered just offshore, and extending back NW into the Great Lakes region. To the north, a weak upper trough is sliding across the northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Farther west, a potent upper level/closed low continues to slide slowly east across the southern plains toward the lower Mississippi River Valley, with an inverted surface trough developing over the west-central Gulf coast region. Afternoon MSAS data continues to show pressure falls over the deep south, in the vicinity of developing sfc low pressure in E Louisiana into MS. It is this feature that will slowly lift our way tonight through Monday, bringing steadily increasing rain chances Monday evening through midweek. Mid to high clouds have increased as expected, and will continue to do so through late afternoon, especially inland. Clouds briefly thin a bit with passage of upper trough and with loss of heating early this evening. However, expect clouds to thicken and lower all over again after midnight as the upper low nudges closer into the mid-south. Local area remains under the influence of sfc high pressure positioned just off the coast. Another dry night with any pcpn staying well W-SW of the local area. Expect a partly to mostly clear night north, partly cloudy south with low temps ranging through the 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... Short term period characterized by gradually deteriorating conditions Monday and Monday night, as aforementioned southern stream low lifts out of the southeast through Monday night, with the attendant sfc low sliding E-NE along the southeast coast Monday afternoon through Tuesday, reaching a position along the Carolina coast Tue night. This keeps the local area on the cooler side of the system with a general light to moderate rain expected to overspread the area. Most of Monday will be dry across the local area, with the exception of some low chc POPs SW (for isolated to widely sct showers after 18Z) of the I-85 corridor. Otw, becoming cloudy with highs in the 60s except for upr 50s at the beaches. Rain overspreads the fa Mon night except for the lwr Md ern shore where it may take until 12Z Tue morning to reach. Pops ramp up to categorical south of I64 Monday night/Tuesday morning, with high end chc to likely pops to the north. Lows Mon night mid 40s nw to mid 50s se. Tue looks breezy and wet, courtesy of strong (albeit slightly weakening) onshore flow and upper forcing. Still appears enough lift/moisture for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Event total qpf ~1.5-2" inland, tapering to ~1 far NE sections. Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se. Drier, albeit with lingering clouds for Wednesday. Slightly warmer with some peeks of sun likely. Still enough remnant low to mid level moisture for a few showers, so will maintain chc Shower wording. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, with a few mid 70s possible across the southern tier.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... After the main area of rain exits the region between 6-12z Wednesday, we should see enough sunshine for temperatures to warm up to around 70 Wed PM. 21/12z GFS/ECMWF have showers lingering throughout the day on Wed, so kept PoPs between 50-60%. GFS even hints at the possibility of a few thunderstorms Wed afternoon. Most recent guidance has backed off on the rain Thursday-Friday AM. ECMWF has the most QPF, and the best chance of rain looks to be over southern/eastern portions of the CWA. Thus, have lowered PoPs to below 30%. Highs between 68-74/lows around 50 expected Thu-Fri. A potent 500mb shortwave is forecast to track over the northeastern US Friday into the weekend. This will set the stage for another chance of rain late Friday-Saturday as well as another shot of below average temperatures. Still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength/timing of this storm system. Highs in the 60s on Saturday with lows dropping into the 40s Sunday AM. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Sunday... VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Expect E/SE winds at 5-10 kt this afternoon. FEW cu possible at ~5k feet through 22-23z for RIC/SBY/ECG. High clouds gradually lower after 12z Monday from SW to NE. Winds increase out of the E to 10-15 kt during the day Monday. Outlook: Expect conditions to deteriorate from SW to NE Monday night as a large area of rain approaches the CWA. This will result in flight restrictions throughout the day Tuesday at all terminals. Restrictions will likely last through ~12z Wed before conditions slowly improve during the day. Winds remain E for all sites at ~10 kt through 9z Tue. East winds increase to between 15-20 kt (gusts to ~25 kt) at ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG during the day on Tue and last through 0z Wed. Slightly lower winds (E at 10-15 kt) expected at RIC during this timeframe. Winds decrease after 00z Wed and turn to the SW by Wed afternoon. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... High pressure centered over New England will prevail across the region through tonight, allowing for a SE wind of 5-15. Waves/seas 1- 2 ft. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast Monday and Tuesday as low pressure lifts from the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 5-9ft, with 4-5ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (2-4ft elsewhere in the Bay). SCAs will eventually be needed for this time frame. Broad low pressure lifts north of the region during Wednesday with SSW winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into Thurs morning. The next low pressure system then impacts the region Friday/Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI MARINE...JDM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.