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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190807
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area today. Dry weather with below
normal temperatures will prevail Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Latest sfc analysis shows ~1002 mb low pressure over nrn VA.
This low will track east today and drag a cold front through the
local area. Despite meager moisture fields there is sufficient
forcing associated with a potent mid-level shortwave trough for
iso-sct shras over NE areas later this morning/midday. Otws,
decreasing clouds this aftn with dewpoints dropping quickly
behind the front. The low RH and winds gusting up to 25-35 mph
will lead to increased fire danger this aftn (see fire wx
section below for more info). High temps today mainly in the
60s.

Winds slowly decrease tonight under a mostly clear sky. Should
be too dry for frost, but temps are expected to bottom out
around 32F over portions of the Piedmont where a Freeze Watch
has been issued. Low temps in the mid/upr 30s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Dry/cool wx Fri as lo pres is slow to exit New England and hi
pres only gradually builds into the local area from the NW.
Still hanging on to a gusty NW wind near the coast. Mostly
sunny w/ highs mainly 55-60F.

Dry/cool wx continues Fri night-Sat as sfc hi pres arrives from
the NW. Winds to decouple/become light most places Thu night
resulting in another night w/ lows in the mid 30s inland
to around 40F near coast in ern/SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Sat
w/ N winds aob 10 mph and highs from the u50s E to the l-m60s
along-W of I 95.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 PM EDT Wednesday...

Below average temperatures expected through the bulk of the extended
period as surface high pressure slowly moves from the wrn Great
Lakes to New England from Sunday through Tuesday. At the same time,
a low pressure system slowly tracks from the srn Plains to the
southeastern US. Rain chances return early next week as that same
area of low pressure tracks northeastward up the Atlantic coast.
Some track/timing differences exist between the 18/12z suite of
guidance. GFS brings in the rain late in the day on Monday while the
ECMWF holds it off until Tuesday PM and has much less QPF than the
GFS. CMC keeps all of the precipitation south of the CWA. Given the
uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% for the bulk of the CWA from Tue-
Wed.

Highs in the mid-upper 60s Sun-Wed from Central VA to NE NC.
Slightly cooler on the Ern Shore with low 60s Sun-Tue warming to mid
60s by Wednesday. Lows mainly in the 40s throughout the CWA on
Mon/Tue rising to around 50 Wed AM with the clouds/possible
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Included some MVFR cigs
solely at KSBY where an increase in low-level moisture is
expected over the next couple hours. Guidance continues to show
LLWS for all TAF sites this morning as a warm front passes
through the region. A cold front will then move through the
area during the day and bring mid level clouds and gusty W-NW
winds. Expect sustained winds of ~20 kt with gusts up to 30-35
kt from late morning through the afternoon. Kept all TAFs dry
for now, but the best chance for any pcpn is at KSBY.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through Sat. Winds will
diminish and shift to the NW tonight. VFR/dry with ~10 kt winds
from the NW on Fri, shifting to the N to NE on Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Low pressure is pushing across the coast early this morning
with a cold front trailing back to the SW of the low. Low pressure
will push off the Delmarva coast by 12z, with the cold front pushing
across the coast later this morning. A SW wind is generally 10-15kt
ahead of the low. The wind will become NW aob 15kt as the low pushes
offshore, and then become WNW 15-25kt later this morning into the
aftn as CAA develops in the wake of the cold front. The wind will
become NW 15-25kt tonight, with gusts up to 30kt for the Bay/ocean.
Seas will initially be ~3ft early this morning, then build to 4-6ft
later this aftn into tonight. Waves in the Bay will be ~2ft, the
increase to 3-4ft later this aftn into tonight. Current SCA flags
will remain as is, but there will be a few hours of sub-SCA
conditions early today before CAA develops. High pressure builds in
from the NW Friday into Friday night. A secondary surge is expected
Friday night, but this surge should generally be sub-SCA. High
pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in
benign marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New
England coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the
Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

With little to no rain in the forecast today and with a frontal
passage, pattern looks favorable given the time of year, and
the typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as the
downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures for increased
fire concerns (this afternoon/early eve). After coordination w/
the VA fire service have issued an Increased Fire Danger
Statement (SPS) for today over central and eastern VA as W
winds become gusty to 25-35 mph and most RH values fall to
25-30% (in the afternoon/early eve). Also have a SPS for
Increased Fire Danger for all of NE NC except the NC Outer
Banks...and for the VA ern shore and VA Beach.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAS
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
FIRE WEATHER...