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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Carolina coast will intensify while
tracking farther out to sea this evening. High pressure builds
over the area for later Monday through Tuesday morning, then
slides off the coast by Tuesday evening. A cold front will swing
across the region on Wednesday, with high pressure building
from the Great Lakes into the local area Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...

The latest WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure (~1007mb)
deepening off the NC coast. CAD setup has been in place today,
though the sfc high to the N is weakening (really a piece of
the stronger sfc high centered well out to the west across the
plains states). Either way, this has led to decent frontogenesis
across the local area, bringing the rain shield well to the
north and across all but the far NW portions of the CWA today.
Note that radar estimated rainfall amounts have been
significantly overdone as QPF amounts across central and south
central have averaged ~0.20 to 0.30" (while radar amounts have
been near 1"). QPF amounts to the SE have been similar, but
this area will likely receive an additional 0.25" or so before
ending this evening. The back edge of the rain shield is pushing
through metro RIC now, and will gradually slide E_SE into the
early evening. PoPs of 80-100% continue for the next few hrs
across the SE, and then become confined to the far SE after
00Z/8pm this evening. Temperatures are well below normal for
late April, generally ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s
CWA-wide (actual highs for today occurred earlier this morning
across most of the region and while cold, no record low maxT
values were set). For central VA, temperatures will tend to rise
a few degrees through sunset, into the low- mid 50s as the rain
comes to an end, with mixing helping raise the temperatures.

Overnight, a shortwave aloft (currently across the lower/mid MS
and lower OH Valley), will track E-SE and push across VA and the
Carolinas on Monday. While dry air in the low levels will
promote cool overnight lows, this shortwave will likely lead to
some mid/high clouds overnight/Monday morning (CIGs of 10-20k
ft). Lows will reach down into the mid 30s for the NW zones,
with mainly upper 30s to lower 40s for most of the rest of the
local area (and in the mid 40s near the coast in SE VA and NE
NC). Patchy frost is unlikely with the exception of the far NW
where patchy frost has been included (but not enough for a
Frost Advisory). Lingering clouds Monday morning across the
east, but generally becoming mostly sunny. Warmer than today,
but highs will still run about 5-10F below average, ranging
from the mid 60s well inland to the upper 50s/lower 60s near the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

With low dew pts continuing and sfc high pressure becoming
centered over the local area Mon night, expect a clear sky,
light winds, and good radiational cooling conditions. Forecast
lows are in the mid to upper 30s over much of the CWA, with
localized lower 30s possible. At least patchy frost will be
possible over much of the CWA and a Frost Advisory may be needed
for inland areas. Turning warmer on the backside of the sfc
high for Tue, with a light southerly flow by aftn. Mainly sunny
with highs in the lower 70s inland, and in the mid to upper 60s
at the coast. Increasing clouds Tue night in advance of another
cold front. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The system/cold front
on Wed will be northern stream, with low level flow turning
westerly rather quickly. As such, moisture will be limited, and
PoPs will only be 20-30% N and ~15% S. It will be well mixed and
warmer, with highs into the mid to upper 70s (except lower 70s
N/NW).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

A fairly strong high pressure system is progged to build in
from the Great Lakes From late Wed night through Thu night. Cool
And becoming mostly clear with lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s Wed night. Mostly sunny on Thu with highs ranging through
the 60s. Clear/mostly clear Thu night with lows ranging from
the mid 30s to lower 40s (with patchy frost possible). The high
will slide off to the NE or E on Fri, with mostly sunny skies
and highs in the mid 60s to around 70F. Partly to mostly cloudy
Fri night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. There could
be isolated showers across the N by Sat morning. There will be
at least a low chc for showers on Sat, as the next system lifts
ENE through the Great Lakes/upper midwest. PoPs are only 20-30%
for now with highs Sat in the upper 60s to lower 70s. After
that, turning much warmer by Sunday as an upper level ridge
amplifies across the ern CONUS. Highs Sunday into the 80s for
most of the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Rain continues across the region this aftn, ending from NW to SE
late this aftn through the evening. Mainly MVFR CIGs prevail
over most of the area, with IFR CIGs across far SE VA and NE NC,
and VFR conditions to the NW of RIC and across the MD eastern
shore. Winds are generally 5-10kt inland, and will be shifting
from NE to NNW this evening. At the coast, especially in SE
VA/NE NC, winds remain gusty to ~20kt from the NE, but will
gradually diminish to around 10kt after 00Z. Improving
conditions develop w/ rain ending, though IFR-MVFR restrictions
will tend to linger at ORF/ECG through the evening. NNE winds
increase to 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt near the coast (and will
avg ~10kt inland) on Monday, with VFR conditions prevailing.


Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Mon night/Tue. There is a
minimal chc for showers Wed, but conditions will primarily stay
VFR. Dry/VFR Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Nebulous 1018mb high pressure over northern VA and 1008mb low
pressure off the coast of NC has resulted in a steep pressure
gradient today from the southern Ches Bay southward into the coastal
Atlantic and Currituck Sound. NE winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt
have been prevalent in the aforementioned areas today. For points N,
winds have generally been 5-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt. Waves
in the bay vary considerably from around 2 ft N to 3-5 ft S and near
the mouth. Offshore, seas N of Parramore Island have averaged 3-4 ft
while areas south have increased to 5-8 ft in persistent NE winds.

SCA headlines continue for the lower bay and James river as well as
the coastal waters south of Parramore Island and the Currituck
Sound. Winds are forecast to slowly decrease this evening with the
bay/James zones likely to fall below SCA thresholds around 7pm.
Winds will stay elevated a few hours longer for the sound so have
headlines ending at 10pm there. For the coastal waters south of the
mouth of the bay, NE winds will keep seas elevated well into Monday
so have extended SCA headlines there until 4pm Monday. Winds will
relax for most of the area this evening before another surge of cold
advection drops south across the waters late tonight. Guidance shows
marginal SCA conditions for the Ches Bay during this surge with
somewhat lower confidence in meeting thresholds in the lower James
and Currituck Sound. Opted to issue SCA headlines for the northern
and central bay zones with this package and hold off on the southern
bay/James/Currituck with SCAs ongoing. Will leave to the evening
shift whether to stretch the current headlines across the expected
lull or let the current hazards expire before issuing new ones.
Conditions are expected to improve late Monday into Tuesday as high
pressure builds into the region. Secondary low pressure deepens
along the stalled front well offshore late Tuesday and may keep some
enhanced swell moving toward the coast. A cold front approaches from
the west late Tuesday with increasing SW winds around 15 kt. Seas
may build above 5 ft for the northern coastal waters during this
period. The front is forecast to move through the region Wednesday
night into early Thursday with increasing N winds and potential
for SCA headlines in its wake.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634-638-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...LKB/TMG
MARINE...RHR