Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 212355 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 755 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through Sunday night. Low pressure tracks from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 204 PM EDT Saturday... Sfc high moves off the coast with high level moisture returning in the WNW flow aloft. Mstly clr this eve, bcmg pt cldy after midnite. Lows upr 30s-mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 204 PM EDT Saturday... Sfc high becomes centered off the Mid Atlntc coast Sun and Sun night. Tsctns cont to show mid/high moisture spilling east of the mts. Skies bcmg mstly cldy north, pt sunny south. Highs in the 60s except mid-upr 50s near the beaches. Drier air filters south across the Delmarva Sun nite. Thus, mstly clr NE, pt cldy elsewhere. Lows upr 30s-mid 40s. Unsettled wx pattern shaping up next week as low pressure ejects east from the nations mid section Sun, into the Tenn valley by late Mon. Models progg a potent srn stream s/w around the base of the long wave trof Mon nite the move it ne to near the Carolina coast Tue. This keeps the local area on the cooler side of this system with a general rain expected to overspread the area. Keeping most of Mon dry except for some low chc pops after 21Z across the swrn zones. Otw, bcmg cldy with highs in the 60s except for mid-upr 50s at the beaches. Rain overspreads the fa Mon nite except for the lwr Md ern shore where it may take until 12Z Tue to reach. Pops ramp up to cat-likely south of I64, chc pops to the north. Lows Mon nite mid 40s nw to mid 50s se. Tue looks wet with cat/likely pops throughout the day. Enough lift/GOM moisture noted for some areas of mdt rain along and west of I95. Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... After the main area of rain exits the region between 6-12z Wednesday, we should see enough sunshine for temperatures to warm up to around 70 Wed PM. 21/12z GFS/ECMWF have showers lingering throughout the day on Wed, so kept PoPs between 50-60%. GFS even hints at the possibility of a few thunderstorms Wed afternoon. Most recent guidance has backed off on the rain Thursday-Friday AM. ECMWF has the most QPF, and the best chance of rain looks to be over southern/eastern portions of the CWA. Thus, have lowered PoPs to below 30%. Highs between 68-74/lows around 50 expected Thu-Fri. A potent 500mb shortwave is forecast to track over the northeastern US Friday into the weekend. This will set the stage for another chance of rain late Friday-Saturday as well as another shot of below average temperatures. Still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength/timing of this storm system. Highs in the 60s on Saturday with lows dropping into the 40s Sunday AM. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 800 PM EDT Saturday... VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Expect calm winds tonight with a shift to the E/SE at 5-10 kt on Sunday. SKC for most locations through ~03z tonight, but some high clouds increasing late tonight into Sunday. Outlook: A disturbance approaches the region late Monday and Tuesday bringing steady rain which will result in flight restrictions. Restrictions will likely last through at least 12z Wednesday before conditions slowly improve during the day.
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&& .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure will prevail over the region thru Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. Wind will remain primarily sea/bay breeze driven this aftn, then S/SE 5-10kt tonight, before becoming N Sunday morning then E 10kt by Sunday aftn as high pressure shifts toward New England and low pressure moves into the Deep South. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure moves off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by late Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 5-9ft Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-5ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (2-4ft elsewhere in the Bay). SCAs will eventually be needed for this time frame. Broad low pressure crosses the region Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low into Thurs morning. SW flow 5-15kt then develops for the end of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...AJB/ERI MARINE...JDM

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