Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242337 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 737 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure tracks across Virginia tonight...then will be slow to move away from the coast Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns by Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Evening update as of 800 PM EDT Tuesday... Latest MSAS has low pressure centered along the NC/SC border se of CLT. The steadiest and heaviest rainfall conts to lift ne with the radar beginning to fill back in with rain as the local area remains on the cooler side of the system. Thus, made several changes to the grids early this evening based on the latest radar trends and sfc obs. Expect periods of rain for the rest of the evening hours. Forecast gets a bit more interesting later tonight as most of the high res data suggests an area of mdt to psbl hvy rainfall along and east of the Ches Bay between 04-10Z as the low pressure system and associated warm front lifts north. Thus, went ahead and beefed up the grids along the coast for this ptntl, but held off on any thunder as it appears most of the convection stays offshore. Otw, rain or shwrs continue across the Piedmont through the night. Patchy drizzle and areas of fog across the Piedmont as the column remains nearly saturated. Lows in the 50s to near 60 se. .Afternoon discussion as of 4 PM EDT Tuesday... On Wednesday, the initial surface low and warm front will lift north of the area, but the upper level low will settle over the area. This will allow for some cooler air aloft to settle over the area with more showers developing in the afternoon. Could potentially see some thunder if there is enough heating ahead of the upper lows arrival. Right now, it looks like it will stay a little too cloudy, but it can`t be ruled out especially east of I-95. Guidance is pretty spread on temps tomorrow with the MET much cooler than the MAV. Have generally gone in between with temps in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... The upper low will exit the region early Wed night taking any chance of rain with it. Show a gradual decrease in pops from SW to NE during the evening. Behind this system the newer model runs are not as aggressive in pushing the drier air with the next sfc high into the region. This is more like what the GFS had been depicting in previous runs. As a result have kept the clouds a little longer and also raised overnight lows by a few degrees getting closer to guidance in the low to mid 50s. With the front not pushing as far south on Wed night into Thursday and stalling more along the NC/VA border expect to see a little less sunshine especially across srn VA/Nrn NC. The next surface wave is now progged to arrive sooner on Thursday night. So expect to see clouds on the increase during the afternoon and could even see some light pcpn in the Piedmont counties around sunset. At this point held off on adding late afternoon pcpn but will need to see how quick the overrunning develops. For highs on Thursday did have readings back into the low to mid 70s with the best warming in the eastern portion of the CWA. With the next wave arriving sooner have sped up pops on Thursday night and Friday morning. The best chance for rain looks to be in the Piedmont counties so have increased pops to 50 for now and they may need to be increased. Once the surface low lifts through the area by Friday morning should see the chances for rain diminish by later morning/early afternoon. For temperatures, kept readings a little warmer Thurs night with the sw flow and clouds. For highs on Friday did keep highs in the low to mid 70s as the return of the sun in the afternoon should allow for temperatures to warm especially ahead of the cold front for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... GFS/ECMWF differ early in this period with the GFS showing the last in a series of s/w trofs rounding the base of the long wave trof late Fri night with it moving off the sern coast Sat ahead of a weak frontal passage. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is drier with little if any support for pcpn even with the frontal passage Sat. A model blend results in low chc shwrs across the sern zones late Fri night and Sat keeping the rest of the local area dry for now. Lows Fri nite upr 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat upr 60s-mid 70s, cooler at the beaches. After that, some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as high pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue. Cool to start then a warming trend. Highs Sun generally in the 60s. Lows in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Mon upr 60s-lwr 70s. Lows upr 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Tue 75-80. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 8 PM EDT Tuesday... Low pressure will track ne across Virginia tonight. The steadiest and heaviest rain has pushed north of the local area with widespread IFR CIGS and lower VSBYS in both rain/fog continues thru the night and into Wed morning. High res data even shows an enhanced band of heavier shwrs (psbl thunder along the coast or just offshore) as the associated warm front lifts northward along the coast btwn 04-10Z. Gusty se wind 15-25 kts along the coast slowly diminish as the low tracks ne. Ptchy fog west of the bay with some drizzle across the Piedmont after midnite. Upr level low then crosses the region Wed with the best support for shwrs east of I95. Could also see an isltd tstm if enuf heating occurs. Conditions finally inprove by Thurs as high pressure returns. Outlook... Another area of low pressure will impact the region Thursday night sct showers and mvfr conditions. A second cold front swings across the the region on Saturday with vfr conditions returning on Sunday as high pres builds into the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Broad low pressure is situated over Upstate SC this afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered well off the New England coast. The resultant pressure gradient between these two features is causing east to southeast winds of 15-25 kt with gust up to 30 kt that will last into this evening. Seas will continue to build to 6-10 ft by this evening; waves reaching 3-5 ft, except up to 6 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Winds/waves/seas diminish/subside overnight into Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. SCAs remain in effect for all waters through late evening, with SCAs for the Rivers coming down at 11 pm Tue, and for the Bay/Sound at 1 am Wed. SCAs have been extended into Thursday morning for the southern coastal waters and Thursday afternoon for the northern coastal waters due to seas remaining elevated. A High Surf Advisory for OBX Currituck will also remain in effect until 5 am Wednesday for nearshore waves of 8- 10 feet. Broad low pressure lifts north through the region during Wednesday with SSW winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into Thurs morning. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure system then impacts the region Friday/Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS/MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/ESS SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...JDM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.