Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 262008
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
408 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds lingers along the coast this evening as our next
weather- maker approaches from the west. Moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected later Wednesday into Thursday, with
rainfall totals approaching 2-3 inches across the southeast
portion of the area. Locally higher amounts will be possible,
potentially leading to flooding concerns. High pressure and
breezy winds return for Friday before weak disturbances pass
though for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages
1. Remaining cloudy and cool along the coast today.
2. Increasing clouds through this evening inland, with rain
chances returning late this evening and overnight mainly west of
I-95.
Latest surface analysis reveals 1028+ mb cool high pressure
of Canadian origin centered over coastal New England, ridging
south along the mid-Atlantic coast, as sub-tropical ridging
aloft lingers along the southeast coast and an upper low over
the central plains fills/lifts across the upper MS Valley. To
the west, ~990mb low pressure continues to lift across the upper
midwest toward southern Ontario, with the associated surface
cold front extending south across the middle and lower MS
Valley.
Flow remains northeasterly at the surface as the maritime air
mass is beginning to descend upon the region, and a wall of low
stratus continues to make progress farther inland late this
morning. Afternoon appears cloudy along the coast, with
increasing clouds over inland sections, though ceilings won`t
be quite as low as along the coast. High temperatures have been
lowered slightly along the coast with the morning update with
upper 40s to low 50s across the east. Farther inland, look for
highs to reach in the 50s to near 60 across the southwest where
the cloud cover likely won`t be as thick.
The upper trough to the west becomes negatively tilted this
afternoon and tonight, allowing the upper midwest low to
quickly eject Ontario this evening. This will also nudge the
associated cold front closer to the region tonight. Low-level
onshore flow continues, allowing for a milder, mainly cloudy
evening across the area. Rain chances begin to ramp up after
midnight across the piedmont, as SSW flow aloft begins to pump
gulf moisture in our direction. Chances for (initially) mainly
light rain ramp up into 20-30% range along the coastal plain
(west of the bay) and into the chance-likely range west of I-95
toward dawn Wed morning. Overnight lows will hold in the lower
to middle 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Rain chances ramp up Wednesday afternoon and evening. Locally
heavy rainfall possible (mainly coastal sections) tomorrow
evening into Thursday morning.
2. Winds increase Thursday and Thursday night.
The northern upper low takes on a negative tilt and lifts
across SE canada. Meanwhile, the SW flow aloft will continue to
advect gulf moisture our way ahead of the slowing cold front as
it approaches our region. Light overrunning rainfall should be
pushing into our piedmont zones tomorrow morning to begin the
day, with spotty light rain pushing across the piedmont to the
I-95 corridor Wed morning into the afternoon, as the front
approaches the area. The front crosses into the area tomorrow
night into Thu morning, with rain becoming more widespread
tomorrow night as low pressure developing along/ahead of the
front across the deep south approaches and better moisture
transport overruns the local area. Rain falls moderately to
locally heavy at times mainly along the coast tomorrow evening
into Thu morning. The rain slowly tapers off Thursday, as the
front gets another nudge E-SE by high pressure building east
upstream over the central plains into the lower OH Vly.
Overall, 12z models continued the trend farther east with best
QPF. The period of highest rain chances is from tomorrow
afternoon into early Thu morning inland and tomorrow night into
Thu morning along the coast. The heaviest rainfall totals
(2.5-3.5") still looks to fall across coastal E/SE VA into NE
NC Wed night, where high PW and best overrunning moisture linger
longest. We`ve nudged QPF down over far inland sections, with
highest storm total QPF ~1" NW of RIC, 1-2" from Chase City to
Richmond and Salisbury. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for the far SE portions of the area. Given
the area received 1-3" a few days ago, this rainfall (combined
with the likely large QPF footprint) could lead to hydro
concerns across the region and possible flood watches down the
road. See the hydro discussion below for more info. Additionally,
northerly winds become breezy Thursday afternoon and evening,
as pressure gradient tightens between the deepening low and
high pressure building to the NW. High temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday will be in the low-mid 50s inland, mid 50s to
around 60 across far SE NC Wednesday. Highs Thursday mainly in
the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...
System moves offshore by Friday as the local area remains in
northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of the departing
trough, and as surface high pressure builds in from the W-SW.
Clearing with gusty northwest winds, though some mid to high
level clouds will be possible ahead of the next disturbance.
High temperatures Friday will be in the lower 60s inland with
upper 50s along the coast. We stay in a northwesterly flow
pattern aloft through the weekend, which will allow weak
disturbances to pass through from time to time. The first of
these systems slide by to our north on Saturday, bringing some
increasing clouds across northern sections. A second disturbance
may move in on Easter Sunday with a more southern trajectory,
possibly bringing a chance of showers to the entire area by Sun
night and Monday. This pattern looks to persist into early next
week. Highs will reach 70 degrees this weekend and into Monday,
with low to mid 60s across the coast/eastern Shore.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
VFR conditions across inland terminals with MVFR to IFR CIGs
along the coast in marine stratus to begin the 18z TAF period.
Some short-lived improvement just inland this afternoon, with
IFR CIGs locked in for SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG. Any improvements should
quickly deteriorate back into IFR again after ~02-04z into Wed
morning. Some VIS restrictions in patchy fog or even patchy DZ
also possible along the coast late tonight/overnight. Winds
will be NE at 8-10kt along the coast (lighter inland out of the
E-SE).
Outlook: Rain chances will return to the forecast late
tonight/early Wed and through the day on Wed and persist into
Wed night/Thu morning before tapering off from W to E Thu aftn
and evening. Sub-VFR conditions develop tomorrow late morning
and afternoon at RIC, and reach remaining sites tomorrow evening
through Thursday along the coast. Heavy rainfall will also be
possible briefly along the coast tomorrow afternoon and evening
at RIC, and tomorrow evening through Thursday along the coast,
with gusty winds possible Thu into Thu evening and Thu into
Friday along the coast. VFR conditions slowly return late
Thu/Thu night and continue through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...
Afternoon analysis shows strong low pressure over Lake Superior with
a cold front extending all the way into the Gulf of Mexico. High
pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes continues to ridge SSW
into the Mid Atlantic. Winds locally are generally from the NE 5-10
kt. Waves in most of the bay are 1-2 ft but 3-5 ft waves linger near
the mouth. Seas continue to be elevated offshore at 7-11 ft.
SCA headlines continue for the mouth of the bay and coastal waters
this afternoon. Headlines for the offshore zones and have been
extended into early Thursday and may need to be extended further in
subsequent forecasts. Generally benign winds will continue this
evening and Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore and weak low
pressure develops to the south. Consensus of the 12z guidance shows
low pressure deepening off the SC coast on Thursday and the low
continues to strengthen Thursday night as it lifts NE. Opted to
hoist Gale Watches for the coastal waters S of Cape Charles Thursday
night into early Friday as confidence is highest in this area.
Elsewhere, confidence in seeing Gale conditions is lower but the
potential is certainly there across Ches Bay and coastal waters as
well as the Currituck Sound. These areas may be included in gale
watches in subsequent forecasts. The bright side is this event looks
to be rather short-lived as low pressure quickly moves away from
shore on Friday. The remainder of the forecast period looks to
average below SCA thresholds into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The area received a beneficial 1-3" of rain this past Saturday.
With additional rainfall Wednesday into Thursday, there is the
potential for some hydrological concerns late this week. Recent
updates to the flash flood guidance show lower values needed in
the 3 and 6-hr time ranges. Ensemble river guidance also shows
the potential for river flooding in the Chowan basin if the
higher rainfall amounts were to be realized. There could also be
the typical concerns with flooding in urban or other flood-
prone areas. Stay tuned for updates as a flood watch may
eventually need to be issued.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...
Tidal anomalies continue to run around 2 ft above normal across the
central and southern Ches Bay. Have upgraded the Coastal Flood Watch
along the bayside portion of the MD Eastern Shore and tidal Potomac
and adjacent areas to a Coastal Flood Warning. Moderate tidal
flooding is likely tonight at Bishop`s Head and Lewisetta as NE
winds and large long-period swells continue at the mouth of the bay.
The Coastal Flood Watch for the VA Eastern Shore has been converted
to a Coastal Flood Advisory as gauges in these areas are expected to
stay below moderate flood thresholds. Elsewhere, left remaining
Coastal Flood Advisories as is. High Surf Advisories continue for
all beaches through this evening and the advisory for VA Beach and
points S has been extended into early Wed morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
MDZ021>023.
Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ024-
025.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
VAZ075>078-085-522.
Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
Wednesday for VAZ075>078-085-522.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ082-084-
086-089-090-523>525.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ093-
095>098.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
ANZ656-658.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/JKP
LONG TERM...MAM/JKP
AVIATION...MAM/JKP
MARINE...RHR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...