Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 262008 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 408 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low clouds lingers along the coast this evening as our next weather- maker approaches from the west. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected later Wednesday into Thursday, with rainfall totals approaching 2-3 inches across the southeast portion of the area. Locally higher amounts will be possible, potentially leading to flooding concerns. High pressure and breezy winds return for Friday before weak disturbances pass though for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages 1. Remaining cloudy and cool along the coast today. 2. Increasing clouds through this evening inland, with rain chances returning late this evening and overnight mainly west of I-95. Latest surface analysis reveals 1028+ mb cool high pressure of Canadian origin centered over coastal New England, ridging south along the mid-Atlantic coast, as sub-tropical ridging aloft lingers along the southeast coast and an upper low over the central plains fills/lifts across the upper MS Valley. To the west, ~990mb low pressure continues to lift across the upper midwest toward southern Ontario, with the associated surface cold front extending south across the middle and lower MS Valley. Flow remains northeasterly at the surface as the maritime air mass is beginning to descend upon the region, and a wall of low stratus continues to make progress farther inland late this morning. Afternoon appears cloudy along the coast, with increasing clouds over inland sections, though ceilings won`t be quite as low as along the coast. High temperatures have been lowered slightly along the coast with the morning update with upper 40s to low 50s across the east. Farther inland, look for highs to reach in the 50s to near 60 across the southwest where the cloud cover likely won`t be as thick. The upper trough to the west becomes negatively tilted this afternoon and tonight, allowing the upper midwest low to quickly eject Ontario this evening. This will also nudge the associated cold front closer to the region tonight. Low-level onshore flow continues, allowing for a milder, mainly cloudy evening across the area. Rain chances begin to ramp up after midnight across the piedmont, as SSW flow aloft begins to pump gulf moisture in our direction. Chances for (initially) mainly light rain ramp up into 20-30% range along the coastal plain (west of the bay) and into the chance-likely range west of I-95 toward dawn Wed morning. Overnight lows will hold in the lower to middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Rain chances ramp up Wednesday afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible (mainly coastal sections) tomorrow evening into Thursday morning. 2. Winds increase Thursday and Thursday night. The northern upper low takes on a negative tilt and lifts across SE canada. Meanwhile, the SW flow aloft will continue to advect gulf moisture our way ahead of the slowing cold front as it approaches our region. Light overrunning rainfall should be pushing into our piedmont zones tomorrow morning to begin the day, with spotty light rain pushing across the piedmont to the I-95 corridor Wed morning into the afternoon, as the front approaches the area. The front crosses into the area tomorrow night into Thu morning, with rain becoming more widespread tomorrow night as low pressure developing along/ahead of the front across the deep south approaches and better moisture transport overruns the local area. Rain falls moderately to locally heavy at times mainly along the coast tomorrow evening into Thu morning. The rain slowly tapers off Thursday, as the front gets another nudge E-SE by high pressure building east upstream over the central plains into the lower OH Vly. Overall, 12z models continued the trend farther east with best QPF. The period of highest rain chances is from tomorrow afternoon into early Thu morning inland and tomorrow night into Thu morning along the coast. The heaviest rainfall totals (2.5-3.5") still looks to fall across coastal E/SE VA into NE NC Wed night, where high PW and best overrunning moisture linger longest. We`ve nudged QPF down over far inland sections, with highest storm total QPF ~1" NW of RIC, 1-2" from Chase City to Richmond and Salisbury. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the far SE portions of the area. Given the area received 1-3" a few days ago, this rainfall (combined with the likely large QPF footprint) could lead to hydro concerns across the region and possible flood watches down the road. See the hydro discussion below for more info. Additionally, northerly winds become breezy Thursday afternoon and evening, as pressure gradient tightens between the deepening low and high pressure building to the NW. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low-mid 50s inland, mid 50s to around 60 across far SE NC Wednesday. Highs Thursday mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday... System moves offshore by Friday as the local area remains in northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of the departing trough, and as surface high pressure builds in from the W-SW. Clearing with gusty northwest winds, though some mid to high level clouds will be possible ahead of the next disturbance. High temperatures Friday will be in the lower 60s inland with upper 50s along the coast. We stay in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft through the weekend, which will allow weak disturbances to pass through from time to time. The first of these systems slide by to our north on Saturday, bringing some increasing clouds across northern sections. A second disturbance may move in on Easter Sunday with a more southern trajectory, possibly bringing a chance of showers to the entire area by Sun night and Monday. This pattern looks to persist into early next week. Highs will reach 70 degrees this weekend and into Monday, with low to mid 60s across the coast/eastern Shore. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across inland terminals with MVFR to IFR CIGs along the coast in marine stratus to begin the 18z TAF period. Some short-lived improvement just inland this afternoon, with IFR CIGs locked in for SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG. Any improvements should quickly deteriorate back into IFR again after ~02-04z into Wed morning. Some VIS restrictions in patchy fog or even patchy DZ also possible along the coast late tonight/overnight. Winds will be NE at 8-10kt along the coast (lighter inland out of the E-SE). Outlook: Rain chances will return to the forecast late tonight/early Wed and through the day on Wed and persist into Wed night/Thu morning before tapering off from W to E Thu aftn and evening. Sub-VFR conditions develop tomorrow late morning and afternoon at RIC, and reach remaining sites tomorrow evening through Thursday along the coast. Heavy rainfall will also be possible briefly along the coast tomorrow afternoon and evening at RIC, and tomorrow evening through Thursday along the coast, with gusty winds possible Thu into Thu evening and Thu into Friday along the coast. VFR conditions slowly return late Thu/Thu night and continue through Saturday. && .MARINE...
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As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... Afternoon analysis shows strong low pressure over Lake Superior with a cold front extending all the way into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes continues to ridge SSW into the Mid Atlantic. Winds locally are generally from the NE 5-10 kt. Waves in most of the bay are 1-2 ft but 3-5 ft waves linger near the mouth. Seas continue to be elevated offshore at 7-11 ft. SCA headlines continue for the mouth of the bay and coastal waters this afternoon. Headlines for the offshore zones and have been extended into early Thursday and may need to be extended further in subsequent forecasts. Generally benign winds will continue this evening and Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore and weak low pressure develops to the south. Consensus of the 12z guidance shows low pressure deepening off the SC coast on Thursday and the low continues to strengthen Thursday night as it lifts NE. Opted to hoist Gale Watches for the coastal waters S of Cape Charles Thursday night into early Friday as confidence is highest in this area. Elsewhere, confidence in seeing Gale conditions is lower but the potential is certainly there across Ches Bay and coastal waters as well as the Currituck Sound. These areas may be included in gale watches in subsequent forecasts. The bright side is this event looks to be rather short-lived as low pressure quickly moves away from shore on Friday. The remainder of the forecast period looks to average below SCA thresholds into early next week.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The area received a beneficial 1-3" of rain this past Saturday. With additional rainfall Wednesday into Thursday, there is the potential for some hydrological concerns late this week. Recent updates to the flash flood guidance show lower values needed in the 3 and 6-hr time ranges. Ensemble river guidance also shows the potential for river flooding in the Chowan basin if the higher rainfall amounts were to be realized. There could also be the typical concerns with flooding in urban or other flood- prone areas. Stay tuned for updates as a flood watch may eventually need to be issued. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... Tidal anomalies continue to run around 2 ft above normal across the central and southern Ches Bay. Have upgraded the Coastal Flood Watch along the bayside portion of the MD Eastern Shore and tidal Potomac and adjacent areas to a Coastal Flood Warning. Moderate tidal flooding is likely tonight at Bishop`s Head and Lewisetta as NE winds and large long-period swells continue at the mouth of the bay. The Coastal Flood Watch for the VA Eastern Shore has been converted to a Coastal Flood Advisory as gauges in these areas are expected to stay below moderate flood thresholds. Elsewhere, left remaining Coastal Flood Advisories as is. High Surf Advisories continue for all beaches through this evening and the advisory for VA Beach and points S has been extended into early Wed morning.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ024- 025. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078-085-522. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075>078-085-522. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ082-084- 086-089-090-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ093- 095>098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM/JKP LONG TERM...MAM/JKP AVIATION...MAM/JKP MARINE...RHR HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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